06/11/17

"This Is The Broadest Episode Of Extreme Equity Market Overvaluation In History"



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"This Is The Broadest Episode Of Extreme Equity Market Overvaluation In History"
// Zero Hedge

Excerpted from John Hussman's Weekly Market Comment,

Market valuations, on these measures, presently approach or exceed the 1929 and 2000 extremes, placing U.S. equity market valuations at the most offensive levels in history.

Indeed, with median valuations on these measures now more than 2.7 times their historical norms, there is strong reason to expect a market loss on the order of -63% over the completion of the current market cycle; a decline that would not even bring valuations below their historical norms (which we've typically seen by the completion of nearly every market cycle outside of the 2002 low).

"...unlike the 2000 valuation extreme, which was largely focused on a subset of extremely overvalued technology stocks, the current market extreme is the broadest episode of extreme equity market overvaluation in history. The chart below shows the median price/revenue ratio of S&P 500 component stocks, which set yet another record high in the week ended November 3, 2017, and now stands more than 50% above the 2000 extreme."

The following chart below shows our Margin-Adjusted CAPE as of November 3, 2017.

On this measure, market valuations are ....

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