05/12/17

The Yield Curve Just Keeps Collapsing...



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The Yield Curve Just Keeps Collapsing...
// Zero Hedge

"probably nothing..."

The Treasury yield curve continues to plumb new cycle lows with 2s30s now below 94bps and 5s30s testing below 60bps...

 

If the tax deal is so 'growthy' - why is the yield curve signaling degrowth?

Who's right about growth? Bonds or Stocks?


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Debt nightmare!



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Debt nightmare!
// Trend Online

Affascinante, davvero affascinante…

Affascinante, davvero affascinante…

The United States is already facing a gloomy fiscal landscape. The federal deficit this year topped $660 billion, despite healthy economic growth, and the national debt now exceeds $20 trillion. Janet Yellen, the outgoing chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, appointed by President Barack Obama, warned last week that the national debt "is the type of thing that should keep people awake at night."

"… È il genere di cose che ...

Warnings of Financial Crash as Stock Markets Continue to Surge



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Warnings of Financial Crash as Stock Markets Continue to Surge
// Global Research

As stock markets continue to rise—Wall Street's Dow Jones index hit a new record high yesterday following the US Senate's passage of a massive tax cut bill—there are growing warnings that a new financial crisis is in the making.

In …


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The Cost Basis of our Economy is Spiraling Out of Control



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The Cost Basis of our Economy is Spiraling Out of Control
// Silver For The People

charleshughsmith.blogspot.com / CHARLES HUGH SMITH / MONDAY, DECEMBER 04, 2017

What will it take to radically reduce the cost basis of our economy?

Clearly, both rising costs and stagnating income cause households to lose ground, i.e. their income buys fewer goods and services every year.If we had to choose one "big picture" reason why the vast majority of households are losing ground, it would either be the stagnation of income or the spiraling out of control cost basis of our economy, that is, the essential foundational expenses of households, government and enterprise.
I've often covered the dynamics of stagnating income for the bottom 95%, and real-world inflation, i.e. a decline in purchasing power.
But neither of these dynamics fully describes the relentless upward spiral of the cost basis of our economy, that is, the cost of essentials and the foundations of the economy: education, healthcare, energy and labor.

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The post The Cost Basis of our Economy is Spiraling Out of Control appeared first on Silver For The People.


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Il rally non è ancora finito



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Il rally non è ancora finito
// Trend Online

Aspettiamo il nono anno di ripresa economica. Il rally non è ancora finito.

"Aspettiamo il nono anno di ripresa economica. Il rally non è ancora finito". Con queste parole Stefan Kreuzkamp, Chief Investment Officer di Deutsche Asset Management, ha sintetizzato l'outlook di mercato per il 2018. "Nonostante il ciclo in corso sia in fase molto avanzata, i mercati azionari e l'economia mondiale hanno ancora margine per continuare a realizzare performance positive", ha aggiunto Kreuzkamp.

Il CIO di Deutsche AM ha osservato che .....

Mecati Valutari- Brasile e Messico

Mecati Valutari- Brasile e Messico  Brasile Il  Brasile  è  uscito  dalla  recessione  nel  primo  semestre https://www.finanzaelambrusco.it/articoli/articoli/finanza/mecati-valutari-brasile-e-messico/

L’azienda che non riusciva a trovare dipendenti inondata da migliaia di curricula



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L'azienda che non riusciva a trovare dipendenti inondata da migliaia di curricula
// Fanpage


Il gruppo industriale inondato di curricula di aspiranti lavoratori dopo l'annuncio dell'azienda che affermava di non riuscire a trovare persone adatte.
Continua a leggere
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Ecco perché i titoli hi-tech stanno correggendo



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Ecco perché i titoli hi-tech stanno correggendo
// Milano Finanza

Il settore beneficia meno dell'attesa riforma fiscale Usa, presenta multipli elevati ed è sensibile ai rialzi dei tassi d'interesse. Lo spiegano gli [...]
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Debiti, Bastiat e l'economia moderna



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Debiti, Bastiat e l'economia moderna
// Francesco Simoncelli's Freedonia





di Alasdair Macleod


Adesso vi racconterò una storiella che parla di una piccola cittadina sonnachiosa del Messico. La pioggia picchia forte e le strade sono deserte. Sono tempi duri: tutti sono indebitati; tutti vivono a credito. Quel giorno arriva in città un ricco turista dal Texas. Si ferma all'unico albergo e lascia alla reception un biglietto da 100 pesos, dicendo che vuole salire di persona al piano di ....

Goldman Sachs: Una situazione simile non si vedeva da prima della Grande Crisi



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Goldman Sachs: Una situazione simile non si vedeva da prima della Grande Crisi
// Contropiano.org

Persino leggendo tra le righe degli ultimi rapporti Goldman Sachs si legge chiaramente che l'attuale situazione di esagerati rendimenti finanziari non è sostenibile. La grande banca d'investimenti, che per definizione ha un approccio spregiudicatamente ottimista verso gli effetti miracolosi del mercato, rivela seppur con messaggi contraddittori e fumosi che nel […]

L'articolo Goldman Sachs: Una situazione simile non si vedeva da prima della Grande Crisi su Contropiano.


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Il rischioso paradosso delle “restrizioni monetarie accomodanti”



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Il rischioso paradosso delle "restrizioni monetarie accomodanti"
// The Walking Debt

Viviamo tempi paradossali, suggeriscono gli economisti della Bis che pochi giorni fa ha pubblicato la sua Quarterly review, a commento degli andamenti economici e finanziari globali. E il paradosso consiste nel constatare che le banche centrali, a cominciare dalla Fed, hanno da tempo iniziato a "tirare" la cinghia della ...

Rig For Stormy Weather



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Rig For Stormy Weather
// Zero Hedge

 


Rig For Stormy Weather

Posted with permission and written by Gary Christenson, The Deviant Investor 

 

Rig For Stormy Weather - Gary Christenson

 

What storm? The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DOW) reached another all-time high. Interest rates in the U.S. are yielding multi-decade lows, some say multi-century lows. Trillions of dollars in global sovereign debt have negative yield and European junk bonds yield less than 10 year U.S. treasuries. "Official" unemployment is low. Borrowing is inexpensive. Things are good, so they say!

 

I Doubt It!


Do you believe the above is a fair and accurate representation of our economic world? If so, how do you explain the following?

 

  • Global debt exceeds $200 trillion and is rising rapidly. This massive debt will NOT be paid back in currencies with 2017 purchasing power. Debt MUST be rolled over in continually DEVALUING dollars, euros, yen and pounds.
  • The financial system rolls over maturing debt, adds more, and pretends repayment will not be problematic. Those who hope this will remain true ignore the lessons of history, including sky-high interest rates in the late 1970s, the Asian and Long Term Capital crises in the late 1990s, many defaults and hyperinflations in the last century and ....

This Time Is Different, It Just Ends The Same



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This Time Is Different, It Just Ends The Same
// Silver For The People

zerohedge.com / by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com / Dec 4, 2017 11:26 AM

This past weekend, I was in Florida with Chris Martenson and Nomi Prins discussing the current backdrop of the markets, economic cycles, and future outcomes. A bulk of the conversations centered around the current "everything bubble" that currently exists globally. Elevated valuations in stock prices, extremely low yields between in "junk bonds," or intense speculation around "cryptocurrencies" all suggest we have entered once again into "bubble" territory."

Let me state this:

"Market bubbles have NOTHING to do with valuations or fundamentals."

Hold on…don't start screaming "heretic" and building gallows just yet. Let me explain.

Stock market bubbles are driven by speculation, greed, and emotional biases – therefore valuations and fundamentals are simply a reflection of those emotions.

In other words, bubbles can exist even at times when valuations and fundamentals might argue otherwise. Let me show you a very basic example of what I mean. The chart below is the long-term valuation of the S&P 500 going back to 1871.

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The post This Time Is Different, It Just Ends The Same appeared first on Silver For The People.


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When The Fed Loses Control And The Rates Move Up We Will Be Facing A Disaster:Rick Rule



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China: Systemic Risk Surges As HNA's High Coupon Borrowing Binge Accelerates



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China: Systemic Risk Surges As HNA's High Coupon Borrowing Binge Accelerates
// Zero Hedge

In early November 2017, we returned to one of our favourite subjects, systemic risk in China related to its big four highly-indebted conglomerates, HNA, Anbang, Evergrande and Dalian Wanda. In particular, we asked whether the extortionately high coupon of 9% on an HNA dollar bond issue, with less than one year to maturity, marked the beginning of China's Minsky moment? As we noted at the time, HNA has $28 billion of short-term debt maturing before the end of June 2018, much of it accumulated during an acquisition binge over the last two years, which has seen it become a major shareholder in companies such as Deutsche Bank AG and Hilton Worldwide Holdings.

Speaking to Bloomberg at the time, Warut Promboon, managing partner at credit research firm, Bondcritic, noted...

"Nine percent is really high for one year. Basically, it tells you that the worry is real."

In a sign that HNA is under pressure, both from the Chinese government and its creditors, CEO Adam Tan announced last week that the company was reversing its previous strategy. From Reuters.

HNA Group CEO Adam Tan said the acquisitive company is making adjustments to conform with national policies, and has sold some investments and real estate projects to improve its liquidity, domestic media reported on Tuesday.

 

Tan said the company would not invest in those areas not backed by the government, while supporting Beijing's Belt and ....

SPY FINANZA/ Italia, i giochi di potere che vanno oltre i partiti



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SPY FINANZA/ Italia, i giochi di potere che vanno oltre i partiti
// Il Sussidiario.net :: Economia e Finanza

Sopra il pelo dell'acqua di stanche ritualità politiche, qualcosa si sta muovendo, attraverso grossi calibri. Mosse più importanti di quelle dei partiti, dice MAURO BOTTARELLI

(Pubblicato il Tue, 05 Dec 2017 06:03:00 GMT)

SPY FINANZA/ Usa, Italia e Iran: le notizie nascoste dalle fake news, di M. Bottarelli
PMI & RIPRESA/ Gli strumenti per aiutare a far scorrere il credito, di L. Erzegovesi
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An Autopsy of Lowest Selling Pressure EVER: S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and DJIA Futures DataViz



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An Autopsy of Lowest Selling Pressure EVER: S&P 500, NASDAQ 100 and DJIA Futures DataViz
// Zero Hedge

E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)

 

Based on candlestick wick analysis and data across all three primary US futures contracts, there is less selling pressure than ever before.

Not since xyz, not since insert year here... there is less selling pressure than ever.  But everything's awesome, right?  Just BTFD, right?

If 'real technical analysis' was stranded on a desert island with only one wish: #RealTA would ask for candlesticks.  And currently there is a complete and utter lack of top wicks – more so than ever before in the history of ES, YM, and NQ futures. The relentless rally of the past 75 trading sessions has resulted in the lowest 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 500-day totals of bottom wicks since ES futures began trading.

So, while volatility and average true range have been missing (read as: kidnapped), so has any semblance of selling pressure; and the top wicks that indicate it.

Aside from an unexpected flash crash type scenario, futures are unlikely to plot a long-term or short-term top without indication of waning buying pressure and/or intensified selling pressure.  At some point in the central bank liquidity orgy flow induced future, all this buying pressure will exhaust itself and we will likely see evidence of an actionable top – in the form of increased frequency and size of top wicks – indicating that selling pressure has arrived (read as: awoken from a morphine overdose induced coma) and that equity 'markets' are finally ready to chill.

 

fibozachi es daily wick comparison

 

 

fibozachi es weekly wick comparison

 

 

Here is another ....

Perché il prezzo del petrolio perde quota?



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Perché il prezzo del petrolio perde quota?
// Money.it

Perché il prezzo del petrolio sta tornando a perdere quota?

La scorsa settimana l'OPEC ha scelto di estendere ancora una volta e per tutto il 2018 lo storico accordo sulla produzione trovato a Vienna nel novembre del 2016. La quotazione del greggio ha potuto così continuare indisturbata la sua scalata, almeno fino ad oggi.

Al momento della scrittura, infatti, il prezzo del petrolio Brent sta viaggiando poco sopra i 62 dollari al barile, il tutto dopo aver perso più dell'1% nella sessione di ieri. Alla luce della recente debolezza viene da chiedersi quali siano i motivi del deprezzamento e quali, invece, le previsioni per i prossimi mesi.


(Il prezzo del petrolio nelle ultime ore)

I motivi della debolezza

Il mercato ha messo sul piatto della ...

Il vecchio resta e il nuovo se ne va. Casini e Di Battista

Il vecchio resta e il nuovo se ne va. Casini e Di Battista E così Pierferdinando Casini, anche questa volta ce la farà a tornare in Parlamentohttps://www.finanzaelambrusco.it/articoli/articoli/politica/il-vecchio-resta-e-il-nuovo-se-ne-va-casini-e-di-battista/