The Imminent Hard Stop

The Imminent Hard Stop
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Authored by Chris Hamilton via Econimica blog,

There is an imminent hard stop to jobs growth in the US and therefore a concomitant problem to growth in consumption and economic activity.  The hard stop is simply the outcome of fast growth in employment versus fast decelerating population growth among the potential labor force... resulting in a labor participation rate that will peak as soon as 2019 or as late as early 2020.  And like night follows day, recession will ensue as soon as employment growth abates.

The US labor force participation rate amid 25 to 64 year olds, at midyear 2018, was 75.2%.  In the post 1980 period (since women have entered the workforce en masse), peak labor force participation rates have been ....

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