11/07/18

Grafico SP500: evening star formation. Test importante per il breve periodo



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Grafico SP500: evening star formation. Test importante per il breve periodo
// IntermarketAndMore

Il grafico del benchmark mondiale delle borse, quello che potremmo considerare ormai come un vero listino azionario globale, ovvero lo SP500, sta assumendo una configurazione grafica quasi di tipo "scolastico". Come potete vedere voi stessi, stiamo testando per la quarta … Continua a leggere
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"The Terrible Trio": Why Goldman Thinks "Something's Gotta Give"



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"The Terrible Trio": Why Goldman Thinks "Something's Gotta Give"
// RSS

Call it "Rodrik's Trilemma" for the Emerging Markets: the combination of higher rates, rising oil prices, and a stronger dollar has historically been a "terrible trio" for EMs according to Goldman's head of FX, Jeff Curries, who writes that as higher funding costs and capital flight to the US force domestic deleveraging, the pressure on EMs tends to be so great that these periods don't last long: i.e. a short circuit event takes place, usually in the form of a market crash. And, as the subsequent damage lingers, the trio often ushers in weaker EM economic growth.

We bring this up because a "terrible trio" is precisely the environment under which emerging markets currently find themselves in, and as Currie points out, "these trio periods signal one of two events: 1) a mid-cycle pause or 2) an end-of-cycle turning point", i.e. a global recession, usually accompanied by a market crash.

To be sure, conceding that a "terrible trio" environment has brought us to the end of the ....

China’s Human Robot Labor Force: The Highest Rate of Surplus Value in the History of Capitalism!



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China's Human Robot Labor Force: The Highest Rate of Surplus Value in the History of Capitalism!
// Global Research

Note to readers: please click the share buttons above  

I'm writing this short communication to share my observations after watching the 2009 Documentary "The Largest Factory in the World and Chinese Labor" as part of informative article "China and


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La stretta creditizia prossima ventura ed il padulo nero



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La stretta creditizia prossima ventura ed il padulo nero
// Phastidio.net

Se siete stanchi di leggere e sentire proclami senza senso lanciati da esponenti di un governo e di […]

L'articolo La stretta creditizia prossima ventura ed il padulo nero
proviene da Phastidio.net.


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Turkish Lira Tumbles To Record Low As "Ticking Time Bomb" Looms In Banking System



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Turkish Lira Tumbles To Record Low As "Ticking Time Bomb" Looms In Banking System
// RSS

Having exercised his newly-omnipotent capabilities to alter central bank decrees and appointing a puppet cabinet, Turkish President Erdogan is now urging the general public to borrow in the currency in which they are paid, but, as Bloomberg reports, that warning came too late for the country's energy companies.

Turkish power producers are emerging as one of the biggest risks to the nation's banks after they plowed billions of dollars into new power generation, distribution projects and deals over the past 15 years. Now, with the lira depreciating faster than they can raise electricity prices, some utilities earn less per year than what they have to repay in foreign-currency loans, according to the Ankara-based Electricity Producers' Association.

Domestic banks are the most exposed to ....

Guerra dazi: addio estate serena. Borse UE quelle più a rischio



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Guerra dazi: addio estate serena. Borse UE quelle più a rischio
// Trend Online

Dopo la calma delle ultime due giornate arriva un'altra minaccia dagli Usa, pronti a nuovi dazi contro la Cina per 200 mld di dollari. Impatti contenuti sull'economia per ora, ma i rischi aumentano: pericoli al ribasso per le Borse UE.

La ritrovata tranquillità delle Borse ha avuto davvero vita breve visto che da questa mattina le vendite sono tornate a dominare la scena. Sulla scia della flessione accusata dai mercati azionari asiatici, anche quelli europei viaggiano in territorio negativo con ribassi superiori ad un punto percentuale al momento.

Trump valuta nuovi dazi su prodotti cinesi per 200 mld di dollari

Ad interromper il movimento rialzista delle ....

WALL STREET: il mercato stempera la tensione ma qualcosa non quadra



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WALL STREET: il mercato stempera la tensione ma qualcosa non quadra
// IntermarketAndMore

Dopo una fase di apparente tensione, anche il COT Report ci riporta dei segnali di tregua, indicando quindi nuovi possibili scenari rialzisti. Ma l'intermarket non sembra così allineato. Analisi dal CFTC di Chicago. [Guest post] Cari amici, nella settimana appena … Continua a leggere
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JP Morgan elenca le valute mondiali più sicure in caso di crisi



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JP Morgan elenca le valute mondiali più sicure in caso di crisi
// Sputnik Italia – Ultime Notizie, Fatti e Analisi: foto, video, infografica

Gli analisti dell'autorevole holding finanziaria americana JP Morgan Chase hanno definito le monete più affidabili in caso di una crisi economia mondiale: sono il dollaro di Singapore, lo yen giapponese, il franco svizzero e il dollaro americano, scrive Bloomberg.
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"Past Point Of No Return": World Markets Tumble Amid Global Trade War Shockwaves



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"Past Point Of No Return": World Markets Tumble Amid Global Trade War Shockwaves
// RSS

In almost every way, the overnight trading action has been a mirror image of the ramp observed on Monday morning, when trade tensions - inexplicably - were said to have "gone away" leading to a furious global rally.

Not so much today, when hours after Trump launched the latest round of trade war - at the worst possible time according to bulls, just ahead of earnings season, once again spoiling the positive effect of what is set to be another 20%+ EPS rise for the S&P - by pushing ahead with plans to impose tariffs of 10% on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods by releasing a list of targeted products that includes consumer items such as clothing, television components and refrigerators, global stocks are a sea of red amid a worldwide market selloff as traders realized that not only is trade war not hibernating, but it is set to keep getting worse as Steven Englander explained last night, as escalation has now crossed past "the point of no return."

While the duties have some time before taking effect, and the soonest they could be ....

Deutsche Bank un problema per il futuro dell'Eurozona



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Deutsche Bank un problema per il futuro dell'Eurozona
// Trend Online

Il settore bancario europeo è enorme: ad aprile il suo bilancio totale ammontava a €30,900 miliardi, pari al 268% del PIL dell'area Euro.

Il settore bancario europeo è enorme: ad aprile il suo bilancio totale ammontava a €30,900 miliardi, pari al 268% del .....

Milan, parte la procedura di escussione di Elliott - Andrea Montanari

Milan, parte la procedura di escussione di Elliott - Andrea Montanari E' partita formalmente questa mattina la procedura di escussione da parte del fondohttps://www.finanzaelambrusco.it/articoli/articoli/finanza/milan-parte-la-procedura-di-escussione-di-elliott-andrea-montanari/

Draghi nel panico ostenta tranquillità



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Draghi nel panico ostenta tranquillità
// Finanza in Chiaro

Sostengo da diverso tempo, da anni, che la Bce per salvare l'euro (o meglio, per proseguirne l'agonia), si è infilata in un "cul de sac" dal quale non riesce a venirne a capo. Il fatto è che l'idea stessa di moneta unica, o, più correttamente, di monete diverse vincolate da un cambio fisso, è pura follia, quindi non si trova una soluzione semplicemente perché soluzione non c'è!

Il fatto è che non ammettere, anzi, negare questa semplice verità è fonte di sofferenze indicibili per le popolazioni degli Stati più deboli che si trovano a dover competere in condizioni di obiettivo svantaggio.

E' chiaro che, prima o poi, il "giogo dell'euro" avrà termine, una fine che ....

Mickey Fulp: Gold Is Still The Only Real Money Among Fiat Currencies



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Mickey Fulp: Gold Is Still The Only Real Money Among Fiat Currencies
// Silver Doctors

All of the fiat currencies on the planet are constantly losing value, and gold offers a way to protect against the devaluations. Here's the details… Mickey Fulp interviewed on CrushTheStreet �…�

The post Mickey Fulp: Gold Is Still The Only Real Money Among Fiat Currencies appeared first on Silver Doctors.


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SPY FINANZA/ La tempesta sulle banche "annunciata" da Draghi e nascosta dai giornali



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SPY FINANZA/ La tempesta sulle banche "annunciata" da Draghi e nascosta dai giornali
// Il Sussidiario.net :: Economia e Finanza

Se n'è parlato molto poco, ma Mario Draghi nell'audizione al Parlamento europeo ha di fatto lanciato un allarme sulla situazione delle banche europee. MAURO BOTTARELLI

(Pubblicato il Wed, 11 Jul 2018 06:04:00 GMT)

BREXIT/ Le mosse che preparano la retromarcia dell'Uk, di M. Bottarelli
USA vs CINA/ L'antipasto pericoloso della guerra dei dazi, di F. Accinelli
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Renzi: perderete! L'assemblea futurista del Pd - Mario Sechi

Renzi: perderete! L'assemblea futurista del Pd - Mario Sechi I Parlamenti lavoreranno per un mese ancora e poi chiuderanno per la pausa estiva. Lehttps://www.finanzaelambrusco.it/articoli/articoli/politica/renzi-perderete-lassemblea-futurista-del-pd-mario-sechi/

Argentina o “cigno nero”, come andremo a fondo? Scegliete tranquilli, ora si va in vacanza (a debito)



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Argentina o "cigno nero", come andremo a fondo? Scegliete tranquilli, ora si va in vacanza (a debito)
// Rischio Calcolato


Quanto è reale la realtà che ci mostrano? Poco. Molto poco. O, quantomeno, è tale fino a che fa comodo alla narrariva ufficiale, agli interessi di parte, alla retorica imperante. Poi, semplicemente, sparisce. Vi faccio un paio di esempi, veloci veloci. Come sapete, il Messico ha da poco un ....

What Happens Next?



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What Happens Next?
// RSS

Since the early close last Tuesday, the S&P 500 is up 80 points, The Dow is up over 700 points... but 30Y Treasury yields are unchanged and the yield curve has tumbled?

Bonds must be wrong, right? They are manipulated, right? Stocks must be the arbiter all of future knowledge - just like they were in 2008?

Still, as

I'm accused of 'confirmation' bias and yet last I saw, the broad NYSE composite is no higher today than it was back in December, and has not made a new high since Jan 26th. Sounds a whoooole lot like a classic topping pattern. Think 1989, think 2000, think 2007.

— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) July 10, 2018 ">Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg points out, ....

Derivatives Trading Legend: "This Is The Signal That An Iceberg Is Dead Ahead"



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Derivatives Trading Legend: "This Is The Signal That An Iceberg Is Dead Ahead"
// RSS

After building out Merrill's mortgage trading floor basically from scratch, then moving to the buyside at Pimco, one year ago Harley Bassman, more familiar to Wall Street traders as the "Convexity Maven" - a legend in the realm of derivatives (he helped design the MOVE Index, better known as the VIX for government bonds) - decided to retire (roughly one year after his shocking suggestion that the Fed should devalue the dollar by buying gold).

But that did not mean he would stop writing, and just a few days after exiting the front door at 650 Newport Center Drive in Newport Beach for the last time, Bassman started writing analyst reports as a "free man", in which the topics were, not surprisingly, rates, derivatives, cross asset interplay and, of course, convexity.

And, in his latest note, Bassman takes on a topic that has become especially dear to the Fed and most market observers: the continued flattening of the yield curve, the timing of the next recession, and what everyone is looking but fails to see, or - as he puts it - what is truly different this time.

Bassman's full thoughts below:

The Path Forward

Let me offer a follow-up comment related to "Catch A Wave" from June 29, 2018. The Yield Curve, as described as the difference between the T2yr vs T10yr rates, will not invert until near the December FOMC meeting.  This is when to start the clock for the typical 18-month lead-time to a recession (sometime in mid-2020).

As such, I am not bearish on SPX; the ....

Asia And The Emerging Markets Could Turn Into Chaos If China’s Economy Collapses



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Asia And The Emerging Markets Could Turn Into Chaos If China's Economy Collapses
// Silver Doctors

China has set itself up for a massive collapse, and it could take out the emerging markets with it. Here's the details… by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders Recently, �…�

The post Asia And The Emerging Markets Could Turn Into Chaos If China's Economy Collapses appeared first on Silver Doctors.


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Trade-War Buying-Panic Stalls As US Yield Curve Tumbles To Fresh 11 Year Lows



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Trade-War Buying-Panic Stalls As US Yield Curve Tumbles To Fresh 11 Year Lows
// RSS

Dow up 700 points... 30Y Yields unchanged...

 

Do you want to play this game?

China managed to extend gains after ....

Stock Buybacks Hit Record $680 Billion In The First Half



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Stock Buybacks Hit Record $680 Billion In The First Half
// RSS

At the start of the year, when the impact of Trump's offshore cash repatriation holiday was just being felt, JPMorgan made a daring forecast: it predicted that buybacks in 2018 would hit a record $842 billion, a number that would put any prior year's total to shame. It also meant that as corporations themselves emerged as the biggest buyer of stocks in 2018, it would require an avalanche of selling to push the market lower.

More recently, when looking at its client trading activity, Bank of America made another surprising observation: in the first half, corporations were the only net buyers of ....