22/07/18

"Highly Unstable Equilibrium": Why One CIO Expects China Will Crash The Market "To Restore Balance"



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"Highly Unstable Equilibrium": Why One CIO Expects China Will Crash The Market "To Restore Balance"
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Submitted by Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

Prisoner's Dilemma

Two members of a criminal gang are arrested and imprisoned. Each prisoner is in solitary confinement with no means of communicating with the other. The prosecutors lack sufficient evidence to convict the pair on the principal charge, but they have enough to convict both on a lesser charge. Simultaneously, the ...

Ministro Economia francese rileva inizio della guerra commerciale tra Europa e USA



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Ministro Economia francese rileva inizio della guerra commerciale tra Europa e USA
// Sputnik Italia – Ultime Notizie, Fatti e Analisi: foto, video, infografica

Il ministro dell'Economia e delle Finanze francese Bruno Le Maire ha annunciato nel fine settimana l'inizio effettivo di una guerra commerciale tra Stati Uniti ed Europa.
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"This Is Market Shock #1", Or Why The Fed Suddenly Has A Very Big Problem



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"This Is Market Shock #1", Or Why The Fed Suddenly Has A Very Big Problem
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Like most financial institutions, Deutsche Bank remains sanguine on the future: it expects the S&P to keep merrily rising toward 3,000, and its house view is that the Fed will stick to its indicated tightening path, raising rates twice more in 2018 and another 4 times in 2019 (although Trump may have a nervous breakdown long before that happens and "resigns" Jerome Powell), while 10-year yields will eventually resume rising toward 3.5% as the curve ultimately resteepens removing concerns about an imminent recession.  To be sure, the latest earnings season provides fuel for optimism as a whopping 90% of the companies that have reported so far have beaten on earnings, with earnings that are 4.5% above the estimates.

Still, as Deutsche Bank admits, it is getting increasingly nervous about the prospects for both the economy and the market, and as a result its forecast is not sanguine about the risks to the forecasts, particularly given the uncertainty around trade tensions, coupled with building inflation risks given the strength in the labor market.

As a result, the bank has proposed some "distinct alternative scenarios that we think markets should consider either as hedges to the current market consensus or to the House view."

We think these potential "shocks" are very much still lurking in the wings. There are plenty of arguments for why they may not materialize, but to appreciate them early will allow investors an opportunity for efficient hedging strategies.

To address these "potential shocks", DB's credit strategist Dominic Konstam is launching a series of 5 pieces, and overnight published the first part in which the bank focuses on market shock #1: a sharp weakening of the Renminbi as part of the reaction to the ongoing trade tensions.

In other words, currency war (something which Goldman already tacitly admitted has begun).

In light of recent developments, including a series of sharp "back and forths" between President Trump and Beijing which has resulted in some fairly dramatic moves in the yuan and the dollar...

... the bank thinks this is a very real ....

Six Reasons Why Credit Suisse Is Very Worried About China's Economy



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Six Reasons Why Credit Suisse Is Very Worried About China's Economy
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While much of the recent commentary targeting China has centered on its response to Trump's trade war and the sharp devaluation of the Yuan, many have argued that the real focus should be China's decelerating economy. Commenting on this paradox, Credit Suisse said in a recent note that "consensus has been far too complacent on China" for a country that in PPP terms is already the biggest economy in the world and has accounted for an average of 36% of annual global GDP growth over the past five years.

However, the Swiss bank adds, recent weeks have seen the flow of investor questions pick ...

FINANZA/ Il burrone pronto a far incontrare Trump e l'Italia



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FINANZA/ Il burrone pronto a far incontrare Trump e l'Italia
// Il Sussidiario.net :: Economia e Finanza

L'economia Usa non sta andando male. Tuttavia, come Wile E. Coyote, Trump rischia di portarla oltre un burrone senza accorgersene. Lì troverebbe l'Italia. UGO BERTONE

(Pubblicato il Sun, 22 Jul 2018 06:03:00 GMT)

FINANZA & MERCATI/ I successi delle nostre imprese "nascosti" da vitalizi e migranti, di U. Bertone
RIPRESA E POLITICA/ Gli errori del Governo Lega-M5s da correggere, di C. Pelanda
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Recensione libro: Breve inventario di un’assenza - Michele Paoletti

Recensione libro: Breve inventario di un’assenza - Michele Paoletti Michele Paoletti Breve inventario di un’assenza Samuele Editore – Pag. 80 – Eurohttps://www.finanzaelambrusco.it/articoli/articoli/cultura/recensione-libro-breve-inventario-di-unassenza-michele-paoletti/