09/09/18

Ministro turco attacca gli USA: “inaffidabili nella gestione dell'economia globale”



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Ministro turco attacca gli USA: "inaffidabili nella gestione dell'economia globale"
// Sputnik Italia – Ultime Notizie, Fatti e Analisi: foto, video, infografica

L'uso unilaterale delle sanzioni statunitensi come arma politica minaccia l'intera economia mondiale, è convinto il ministro delle Finanze della Turchia Berat Albayrak.
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Is The US Job Market Is Finally Overheating? The Answer In 40 Charts



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Is The US Job Market Is Finally Overheating? The Answer In 40 Charts
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The stock market hiccuped, and bond yields spiked on Friday after the latest jobs report showed that the Phillips curve is finally coming back to life as average hourly earnings spiked, rising by double the expected 0.2% M/M, and posting a 2.9% increase annually, the highest since the financial crisis.

This in turn has further entrenched the view that the Fed may be falling further behind the jobs and inflation curve - and will be forced to raise rates longer and ....

L’escalation della crisi economica italiana può colpire la Grecia?



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L'escalation della crisi economica italiana può colpire la Grecia?
// Sputnik Italia – Ultime Notizie, Fatti e Analisi: foto, video, infografica

La Grecia è ufficialmente uscita dall'epoca dei memorandum e ora è alla ricerca di… una sua Itaca, come è emerso in particolare durante la visita del primo ministro greco proprio sull'isola a giugno: è stato il suo primo viaggio dopo la conclusione del programma relativo al terzo pacchetto di aiuti.
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10 Years After the Financial Crisis | J.P. Morgan

10 Years After the Financial Crisis | J.P. Morgan

10 Years After the Financial Crisis | J.P. Morgan

The financial crisis brought the global economy to the brink, with many regarding the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008 as the seminal moment of the great recession. That same year, the U.S. housing market went under water, J.P. Morgan acquired Bear Stearns in record time as it too faced collapse, stock markets crashed and the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates to their lowest in history. Ten years on, the J.P. Morgan Research team explores what has changed and what the future could hold for the global economy and markets



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JPMorgan says next crisis will feature flash crashes and social unrest

JPMorgan says next crisis will feature flash crashes and social unrest

JP Morgan's top quant warns next crisis to have flash crashes and social unrest not seen in 50 years

Marko Kolanovic

Crystal Mercedes | CNBC

Marko Kolanovic

Sudden, severe stock sell-offs sparked by lightning-fast machines. Unprecedented actions by central banks to shore up asset prices. Social unrest not seen in the U.S. in half a century.

That's how J.P. Morgan Chase's head quant, Marko Kolanovic, envisions the next financial crisis. The forces that have transformed markets in the last decade, namely the rise of computerized trading and passive investing, are setting up conditions for potentially violent moves once the current bull market ends, according to a report from Kolanovic sent to the bank's clients on Tuesday. His note is part of a 168-page mega-report, written for the 10th anniversary of the 2008 financial crisis, with perspectives from 48 of the bank's analysts and economists.

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It's time to rotate into value, says JPM's Kolanovic

Kolanovic, a 43-year-old analyst with a Ph.D. in theoretical physics, has risen in prominence for explaining, and occasionally predicting, how the new, algorithm-dominated stock market will behave. The current bull rally, the longest in modern history by some measures, has been characterized by extended periods of calm punctuated with spasms of selling known as flash crashes. Recent examples include a nearly 1,600 point intraday drop in February and a 1,100 point decline in August 2015.

"They are very rapid, sharp declines in asset values with sharp increases in market volatility," Kolanovic, the bank's global head of macro quantitative and derivatives research, said in a recent interview. But those flash crashes occurred during a backdrop of a U.S. economic expansion; the new market hasn't been tested in the throes of a recession, he said.

"If you have these liquidity-driven sharp sell-offs that come at the end of the cycle, or maybe even causes the end of the cycle, then I think you can have a much more significant asset price correction and even more significant increase in market volatility," Kolanovic said.

No one to step in and buy

In his report, Kolanovic explains how the major market trends that occurred after the 2008 crisis exacerbate selling during moments of panic. The massive shift from active to passive managed investments — he estimates that $2 trillion has moved that way in the past decade — has removed a pool of buyers who can swoop in if valuations tumble, he wrote.

The rise of automated trading strategies is also a factor because many quant hedge funds are programmed to automatically sell into weakness, he said. Together, index and quant funds now make up as much as two-thirds of assets under management globally, and 90 percent of daily trading comes from those or similar strategies, he wrote.

"Basically, right now, you have large groups of investors who are purely mechanical," Kolanovic said. "They sell on certain signals and not necessarily on fundamental developments, such as increases in the VIX, or a change in the bond-equity correlation, or simple price action. Meaning if the market goes down 2%, then they need to sell."

Lastly, electronic trading desks at banks and other firms tend to withdraw when markets get rough, removing liquidity and contributing to a cascading decline in prices.

The 'Great Liquidity Crisis'

Kolanovic says that this potential meltdown in stock prices could cause the next financial crisis. His name for it: the Great Liquidity Crisis. (In markets, liquidity is a measure of the ease and speed a financial instrument can be traded without significantly impacting its price. For example, cash is highly liquid. Meanwhile real estate is usually illiquid.)

If markets fall by 40 percent or more, the Federal Reserve would need to leap into action to prevent a spiral that led into depression, Kolanovic said. That could lead to unconventional actions, including direct purchases of equities, a move that Japan's central bank has already taken.

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Summer market melt-up coming, says JPMorgan's Kolanovic

"Suddenly, every pension fund in the U.S. is severely underfunded, retail investors panic and sell, while individuals stop spending," Kolanovic said. "If you have this type of severe crisis, how do you break the vicious cycle, the negative feedback loop? Maybe you stimulate the economy by cutting taxes further, perhaps even into negative territory. I think most likely is direct central bank intervention in asset prices, maybe bonds, maybe credit, and perhaps equities if that's the eye of the storm."

In an hourlong interview, Kolanovic said this scenario is less a prediction than a warning about a rising risk. He also said that the chance of a crisis happening are low until at least the second half of 2019. The exact timing of this crisis is uncertain but will be determined by the speed in which the Fed hikes interest rates and reverses bond purchases (a legacy of the last crisis), he said. The developing trade dispute with China could accelerate or delay the end of the cycle as well, he said.

Kolanovic closes his report on an ominous note: "The next crisis is also likely to result in social tensions similar to those witnessed 50 years ago in 1968."

An Aug. 28, 1968 file photo shows a demonstrator with his hands on his head is led by Chicago Police down Michigan Ave. during a confrontation with police and National Guardsmen who battled demonstrators near the Conrad Hilton Hotel, headquarters for the Democratic National Convention. 

AP

An Aug. 28, 1968 file photo shows a demonstrator with his hands on his head is led by Chicago Police down Michigan Ave. during a confrontation with police and National Guardsmen who battled demonstrators near the Conrad Hilton Hotel, headquarters for the Democratic National Convention. 

That year saw the peak of both the Vietnam War and anti-war movement and the assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr. and Sen. Robert F. Kennedy. Today, the internet and social media are helping to polarize groups, and events including the U.S. election and Brexit show tensions that will probably worsen in the next crisis, he said.

He was a bit more measured in his interview. If central banks can head off the worst of a crisis by providing a floor for asset prices, then the status quo will probably be maintained, he said.

"If they don't manage to," Kolanovic said, "then you're spiraling into depression, social unrest and a lot more disruptive changes that can negatively affect returns for a very long time."



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JP Morgan Analyst Warns Of Crisis With Flash Crashes On The Horizon



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JP Morgan Analyst Warns Of Crisis With Flash Crashes On The Horizon
// Silver Doctors

This respected analyst is saying we're likely to see a crisis like we haven't seen in 50 years, but it's more likely we'll see a crisis like never before. Here's �…�

The post JP Morgan Analyst Warns Of Crisis With Flash Crashes On The Horizon appeared first on Silver Doctors.


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The Amazon Business Model is A Job Killer: The Shift Towards E-Commerce. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and 31 Million Jobs Destroyed



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The Amazon Business Model is A Job Killer: The Shift Towards E-Commerce. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and 31 Million Jobs Destroyed
// Global Research

Note to readers: please click the share buttons above  

Prominent in the news this past week was the report that Amazon and its CEO, Jeff Bezos, reached record levels of market valuation and wealth. Amazon is now worth more than


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From Buenos Aires To Nashville: The Emerging Market Crisis Spreads From Periphery To Core



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From Buenos Aires To Nashville: The Emerging Market Crisis Spreads From Periphery To Core
// DollarCollapse.com

This is the last emerging market crisis story for a while, promise. But one angle – exactly how a plunging currency in a far-off place affects supposedly stable markets like the US – is worth exploring because it's happening right this minute. Let's start with the choices facing an American or European investor who needs […]

The post From Buenos Aires To Nashville: The Emerging Market Crisis Spreads From Periphery To Core appeared first on DollarCollapse.com.


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‘Basta Parlare Di Populismo: Il Popolo, Anche In Europa, Si Sta Ribellando Contro Le éLite Che Lo Hanno Ingannato E Impoverito, Inclusi Obama E Clinton Che Hanno Sabotato La Candidatura Di Bernie Sanders’. Noam Chomsky Abbatte La Polemica Destra-Sinistra: ‘I Democratici Hanno Abbandonato Le Classi Operaie, Ma Il Partito Repubblicano è Peggio Di Hitler. E Vi Spiego Perché’



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'Basta Parlare Di Populismo: Il Popolo, Anche In Europa, Si Sta Ribellando Contro Le éLite Che Lo Hanno Ingannato E Impoverito, Inclusi Obama E Clinton Che Hanno Sabotato La Candidatura Di Bernie Sanders'. Noam Chomsky Abbatte La Polemica Destra-Sinistra: 'I Democratici Hanno Abbandonato Le Classi Operaie, Ma Il Partito Repubblicano è Peggio Di Hitler. E Vi Spiego Perché'
// Articoli

  Fabrizio Rostelli per 'il manifesto'   Linguista, filosofo, accademico, teorico della comunicazione e attivsta politico. Noam Chimsky non ha bisogno di presentazioni…   Negli USA e in Europa stiamo assistendo a un progressivo spostamento a desra di una grande fetta della classe lavoratrice. i media lo chiamano "populismo" ma non credo che questo sia il termine adatto. Da cosa è...
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Market mover della settimana: BCE, Bank of England e molto altro. Calendario ricco di eventi



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Market mover della settimana: BCE, Bank of England e molto altro. Calendario ricco di eventi
// Money.it

I market mover della settimana dal 10 al 14 settembre riempiranno le pagine del Calendario Economico di appuntamenti di politica monetaria.

A parlare di tassi di interesse e Quantitative Easing ci sarà innanzitutto la Bank of England che, secondo la maggior parte degli analisti, lascerà invariato il costo del denaro ai livelli attuali.
Poi sarà il turno della BCE, che si ....

Bloomberg: la Russia è in grado di difendere il rublo



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Bloomberg: la Russia è in grado di difendere il rublo
// Sputnik Italia – Ultime Notizie, Fatti e Analisi: foto, video, infografica

La Russia riesce a difendere la propria valuta nazionale grazie alle sue riserve d'oro e uno dei più bassi livelli di debito pubblico al mondo, osserva Bloomberg.
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Teheran: Iran, Russia e Turchia vogliono escludere dollaro nel commercio tra di loro



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Teheran: Iran, Russia e Turchia vogliono escludere dollaro nel commercio tra di loro
// Sputnik Italia – Ultime Notizie, Fatti e Analisi: foto, video, infografica

Il capo della Banca Centrale dell'Iran Abdolnaser Hemmati ha comunicato di aver discusso con i rappresentanti di Russia e Turchia la possibilità di commerciare con le proprie valute al posto del dollaro, scrive il Tehran Times.
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Il Surplus Commerciale Cinese Verso Gli Usa Tocca Il Massimo, Alla Vigilia Di Entrata In Azione Delle Sanzioni



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Il Surplus Commerciale Cinese Verso Gli Usa Tocca Il Massimo, Alla Vigilia Di Entrata In Azione Delle Sanzioni
// Scenarieconomici.it

 

Anche se si parla dei dazi che gli USA vorrebbero porre all'export cinese negli USA in realtà queste sono entrate i azione in modo completo solo di recente e solo ....

GOVERNO CONTE/ 100 giorni in cerca di soldi mentre l'Italia cade a pezzi



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GOVERNO CONTE/ 100 giorni in cerca di soldi mentre l'Italia cade a pezzi
// Il Sussidiario.net :: Economia e Finanza

Treni fermi e ponti caduti: per mettere in sicurezza il Paese servono investimenti nelle grandi opere. Il governo darà risorse solo a flat tax e reddito di cittadinanza. STEFANO CINGOLANI

(Pubblicato il Sun, 09 Sep 2018 06:01:00 GMT)

FINANZA E SPREAD/ Le 2 incognite che fanno tremare Salvini e Di Maio, di U. Bertone
MANOVRA/ "Salvini e Tria pronti ad abbandonare il governo prima del botto, int. a F. Forte
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TRUMP SFIDA APPLE, "PRODUCETE NEGLI USA"/ Ultime notizie, Tim Cook preoccupato da nuovi dazi alla Cina



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TRUMP SFIDA APPLE, "PRODUCETE NEGLI USA"/ Ultime notizie, Tim Cook preoccupato da nuovi dazi alla Cina
// Il Sussidiario.net :: Economia e Finanza

Trump sfida Apple, "producete negli Usa": il presidente americano risponde alle preoccupazioni del gruppo di Tim Cook per nuovi dazi alla Cina che aumenterebbero i costi dei prodotti.

(Pubblicato il Sat, 08 Sep 2018 22:28:00 GMT)

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Insider Selling Soars In "Cautionary Sign" To Market



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Insider Selling Soars In "Cautionary Sign" To Market
// RSS

One month ago, when Apple finally crossed above $1 trillion in market cap, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin said that investors had been focusing on the "wrong $1 trillion question", adding that the correct question was: what amount of buyback will companies authorize in 2018? The reason was that according to the latest estimate from Goldman's buyback desk, stock buyback authorizations in 2018 had increased to a record $1.0 trillion - a result of tax reform and strong cash flow growth - a 46% rise from last year.

The upward revision was warranted: according to TrimTabs calculations, buyback ...

FAANG Avoiding Funds Just Had Their Worst Month Since 2009



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FAANG Avoiding Funds Just Had Their Worst Month Since 2009
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For professional investors, August was the cruelest month.

In the month when the S&P 500 cleared a new all time high, rising above 2,900 for the first time ever while setting a new record as for the longest "bull market", hedge funds were dazed and confused by the market action, suffering another month of sharp underperformance, and sending their YTD return back into negative territory according to the HFRX equity hedge index.

But it wasn't just hedge funds who suffered the painful short squeezes and sector rotation that prompted Nomura to observe a "multi-month performance disaster for US equity funds": according to Bank of America, "plain vanilla" large cap mutual funds also struggled to ....

Sempre più profondo l’isolamento di Washington per effetto della politica di sanzioni e minacce



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Sempre più profondo l'isolamento di Washington per effetto della politica di sanzioni e minacce
// controinformazione.info

di  Luciano Lago Se è visibile un risultato della politica di attacchi economici del presidente Trump questo è stato quello di riavvicinare le diverse potenze mondiali, di aver favorito la normalizzazione di nuove partnership economiche e prodotto la cooperazione ...

Germania. Portati alla fame anche i liberal iniziano a ragionare.



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Germania. Portati alla fame anche i liberal iniziano a ragionare.
// SenzaNubi

Giuseppe Sandro Mela.

2018-09-09.

Merkel muss weg.

«Dopo non molti giorni, il figlio più giovane, raccolte le sue cose, partì per un paese lontano e là sperperò le sue sostanze vivendo da dissoluto. Quando ebbe speso tutto, in quel paese venne una ....

There Goes The Credit Impulse: Why Chinese Consumption Is On The Verge Of Collapse



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There Goes The Credit Impulse: Why Chinese Consumption Is On The Verge Of Collapse
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Recently we discussed how in addition to the widely manipulated Chinese GDP data, new concerns had emerged about official data involving Chinese industrial profits, because while China's National Bureau of Statistics has traditionally reported positive year-on-year growth rates in percentage terms, growth in absolute yuan terms has been negative. This deviation, which barely happened in the past, has reinforced scepticism over the quality of Chinese "data" and ....

The Most Important Asset Class In The World (Is Not What You Think)



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The Most Important Asset Class In The World (Is Not What You Think)
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Authored by David Robertson via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Here we are, ten years after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, and one would be hard pressed to find evidence of meaningful lessons learned.

"As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance," – Chuck Prince, Citigroup

Chuck's utterance now sounds more like a ....

Recensione libro: Resta con me - Tami Oldham Ashcraft e Susea McGearhart

Recensione libro: Resta con me - Tami Oldham Ashcraft e Susea McGearhart Giovani, innamorati e con un roseo futuro di fronte, Tami Oldham e il suo fidanzatohttps://www.finanzaelambrusco.it/articoli/articoli/cultura/recensione-libro-resta-con-me-tami-oldham-ashcraft-e-susea-mcgearhart/