07/10/18

The Next Bond Crisis: Over $1 Trillion In Bonds Risk Cut To Junk Once Cycle Turns



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The Next Bond Crisis: Over $1 Trillion In Bonds Risk Cut To Junk Once Cycle Turns
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It's been a long time coming.

Last November, still smarting from a year he would rather forget, Russell Clark and his Horseman Capital, i.e. the "world's most bearish hedge fund" unveiled what he would short next: according to Clark, the next major source of alpha would be shorting fallen angel bonds.

Citing a recent IMF Global Financial Report, Clark said that "US investment grade debt is very low quality, and could produce some large fallen angels [and] mutual funds are much larger in the high yield market than they used to be. [L]ow rates means the capital losses are much higher than they used to be. And that investors in high yield mutual funds are much flightier than they used to be! Essentially the IMF are telling me that if you get a large enough fallen angel, the high yield market will freak out, and volatility will spike causing volatility targeting investors to dump leveraged positions. Sounds good to me."

Then, last June, one of the icons of credit and distressed investing, Oaktree Capital, joined the bandwagon of fallen angel hunters, saying that the fund "expects to see a flood of troubled credits topping $1 trillion as rising interest rates overwhelm low-quality loans and bonds." Speaking at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Oaktree Capital's Chief Executive Jay Wintrob said that when the cycle turns it will be faster and larger than ever as "fallen angels" proliferate, and added ominously that "there will be a spark that lights that fire."

Oaktree saw the potential opportunity as so pressing that the fund has now allocated about a ....

Greyerz – A World On The Cusp Of A Crisis



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Greyerz – A World On The Cusp Of A Crisis
// King World News

As the world edges closer to the next crisis, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE and historic moves in currencies, warned King World News that we live in a world on the cusp of a major crisis.

The post Greyerz – A World On The Cusp Of A Crisis appeared first on King World News.


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Duello Italia-Ue alla prova dei mercati



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Duello Italia-Ue alla prova dei mercati
// RSS di Economia - ANSA.it

Sotto osservazione lo spread Btp-Bund
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"Waiting For The World To End" - Bond Rout Bodes Badly For Exuberant Equity Investors



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"Waiting For The World To End" - Bond Rout Bodes Badly For Exuberant Equity Investors
// RSS

It was a tough week for stock market investors but the primary driver of the chaotic crumble in small caps and tech stocks was not one of the usual suspects and even for those who consider themselves 'hedged' or balanced it was the worst week in 7 months.

The blame for this blight on .....

Cina deafult, un trend importante sembra essere partito….



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Cina deafult, un trend importante sembra essere partito….
// Fabio Troglia

Cina default, un trend importante sembra essere partito…. A giugno, abbiamo chiesto se era giunto il momento di "iniziare a preoccuparsi per la valanga del debito pubblico in Cina" quando abbiamo riferito che secondo la società di ricerca Rhodium Group LLC, ci sono già stati meno 14 default di obbligazioni societarie in Cina nel 2018, […]
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Did Something Just Break?



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Did Something Just Break?
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Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Market Review

In last week's missive I stated:

"There has been a pretty well defined upward trendline (gold box) since the April lows which has consistently provided better entry opportunities to increase equity exposure."

"As stated, our existing portfolios are currently fully weighted toward equity risk as there seems to be little which can derail this market currently. We have ....

China Cuts Reserve Ratio, Releases 1.2 Trillion Yuan Amid Rising Trade War, Record Defaults



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China Cuts Reserve Ratio, Releases 1.2 Trillion Yuan Amid Rising Trade War, Record Defaults
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China's central bank announced it would cut the Required Reserve Ratio (RRR) for most banks by 1.0% effective October 15 for the fourth time in 2018, a little over three months after the PBOC announced a similar cut on June 24, as Beijing seeks to stimulate the slowing economy amid the growing trade war with the US, a slumping stock market, a sliding yuan and a record number of bond defaults.

The People's Bank of China announced on Sunday local time that it lowered the required reserve ratio for ....

WARNING: The Everything Bubble Is In SERIOUS TROUBLE



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WARNING: The Everything Bubble Is In SERIOUS TROUBLE
// Silver Doctors

We may have been warning repeatedly over the last few months, but what happened last week takes it to a whole new level. Here's why… by Graham Summers of Gains, �…�

The post WARNING: The Everything Bubble Is In SERIOUS TROUBLE appeared first on Silver Doctors.


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Market mover della settimana: verbali Fed e inflazione USA in focus



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Market mover della settimana: verbali Fed e inflazione USA in focus
// Money.it

I market mover della settimana dall'8 al 12 ottobre di nuovo al vaglio degli osservatori.

Tra i protagonisti sul Calendario Economico sicuramente l'inflazione statunitense, che sarà accompagnata dai prezzi al consumo della Spagna e della Germania.

A proposito della prima economia europea, poi, occhio ai market mover della ...

Deficit e tasse al Popolo, prima del disastro



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Deficit e tasse al Popolo, prima del disastro
// Phastidio.net

Altre osservazioni spicciole domenicali su quello che ci aspetta se gli scappati di casa daranno seguito alle loro […]

L'articolo Deficit e tasse al Popolo, prima del disastro
proviene da Phastidio.net.


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Lynette Zang: History Shows A 100% Record Of Returning To Gold After The Hyperinflation



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Lynette Zang: History Shows A 100% Record Of Returning To Gold After The Hyperinflation
// Silver Doctors

Using established history as her guide, Lynette says it is certain we're going back to some sort of gold standard after the hyperinflation. Here's why… by Lynette Zang of ITM �…�

The post Lynette Zang: History Shows A 100% Record Of Returning To Gold After The Hyperinflation appeared first on Silver Doctors.


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Feltri l’antiromano

Feltri l’antiromano Di Marcello Veneziani Se Vittorio Feltri è diventato Vittorio Feltri, lo deve ahttps://www.finanzaelambrusco.it/articoli/articoli/politica/feltri-lantiromano/

Europe's Junk Bond Bubble Has Finally Burst



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Europe's Junk Bond Bubble Has Finally Burst
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Earlier this week, the euphoria over US junk bonds hit new post-crisis highs when amid a sharp slowdown in supply, a rise in the oil price and generally solid economic conditions, insatiable buyers sent the Bloomberg Barclays Corporate high yield spread to the lowest since before the financial crisis, dropping as low as 303bps, the tightest level since late 2007 before drifting somewhat wider during the late week bond rout.

Yet while the US high yield ....