25/10/18

Did The Nasdaq Bubble Just Burst?

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Did The Nasdaq Bubble Just Burst?
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Regular readers will recall when back in March, Bank of America cautioned that after the tech bubble in 2000, the housing bubble in 2006, we were witnessing the third biggest bubble of all time: the e-Commerce bubble.

Well, after several weeks of sharp volatility which has hammered tech stocks, slammed momentum trades and hurt growth factors, the tech sector is .....

The Average Stock Is Overvalued... "Somewhere Between Tremendously & Enormously"

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The Average Stock Is Overvalued... "Somewhere Between Tremendously & Enormously"
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Authored by Vitaliy Katsenelson via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

My business is to constantly look for new stocks by running stock screens, endlessly reading (blogs, research, magazines, newspapers), looking at the holdings of respected investors, talking to a large network of investment professionals, attending conferences, scouring through ideas published on value investor networks, and finally, scouring a large (and growing) watch list of companies to buy at a significant margin of safety.

With all of that, my firm is having little success finding solid companies at attractive valuations.

Don't just take my word for it.

Take a look at .....

US Markets 'Dead-Cat-Bounce' As 'Smart Money' Collapses To Lehman Lows

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US Markets 'Dead-Cat-Bounce' As 'Smart Money' Collapses To Lehman Lows
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What goes down, dead-cat-bounces back up on negligible volume... because...

China opened ugly but was rescued into the close of the afternoon session...

It is not entirely surprising that ....

What A Bunch Of Idiots!?

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What A Bunch Of Idiots!?
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Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

Tell me this isn't crazy...

A few days ago the creator of the most famous consumer 'credit score' in the United States announced a major overhaul in how it rates borrowers.

Consumers live and die by this 'FICO score'. A high FICO score means that it's easy to obtain loans at lower interest rates.

And a bad FICO score (in theory) means that you have a history of not paying your debts… hence making it difficult to obtain loans.

Well it turns out there are tens of millions of people in the US who either don't have FICO scores at all (i.e. NO credit history), or they have BAD credit.

So FICO decided that they would reinvent the way they calculate the scores– giving a big boost to people with bad credit.

Virtually overnight, people who have a history of not paying their bills will immediately be deemed creditworthy.

And poof… they'll have access to more debt than ever before.

No offense, but what a bunch of idiots.

This company is deliberately lowering its standards and pretending that people with a terrible credit history are actually top quality borrowers.

Gee where have we .....

"It Looks Like We're Doomed" - Pros Are Perplexed As S&P Heads For Worst Month Since 2009 Crash Lows

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"It Looks Like We're Doomed" - Pros Are Perplexed As S&P Heads For Worst Month Since 2009 Crash Lows
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"It looks like we are doomed..."

That is the ominous warning from Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York, as he reflects on the ugly reality that is slowing revealing itself from behind Oz's curtain of disinformation about how awesome the economy and earnings really are.

He's not wrong - one glimpse at the ....

$5 Billion Hedge Fund SPO Shutters: "We Find It Exceedingly Difficult To Deploy Capital"

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$5 Billion Hedge Fund SPO Shutters: "We Find It Exceedingly Difficult To Deploy Capital"
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While growth stocks are suffering one of their worst bouts in recent history, the recent rebound in "value" has come too late to help one venerable asset manager.

According to Bloomberg, the Mill Valley, CA-based SPO Partners, a $5 billion hedge fund that's managed money for almost five decades, is closing. The company which lists the billionaire Bass family among its numerous clients, will return a quarter of its assets next month and most of the rest early next year. SPO said clients had asked to pull about 7% of its .....

"Their Luck Is Running Out": Why Albert Edwards Expects A Chinese Hard-Landing

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"Their Luck Is Running Out": Why Albert Edwards Expects A Chinese Hard-Landing
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Albert Edwards remembers the 1987 equity crash "as if it were yesterday."

As the SocGen strategist reminisces in his latest note to clients, "one key feature was investors' surprise that the already frothy Japanese equity market and economy just sailed through the crisis more untouched than most. This was mistakenly attributed to sound policy and an unsinkable economy. As a result, confidence that Japanese policymakers could deftly manage and avert any potential crisis saw investors pour money into Japanese assets. Risk appetite inflated to previously unseen levels, and then…..."

Albert brings up this particular diversion from the real risks facing traders on that October morning in 1987 because it represents a lesson "that when policymakers have a 'good' crisis, investors then become over-complacent and fail to price risk correctly."

It wasn't just Black Monday: as Edwards notes, in 2001, in the immediate aftermath of the Nasdaq crash and with the expected deep recession averted, investors made the mistake of anointing Alan Greenspan with semi-supernatural powers of policy management "whereas in fact he might have just been lucky." He was.

Alan Greenspan and the Fed were seen by investors to have had a good crisis, and together with Greenspan's mythical equity market put, investors became overcomplacent. The bust, when it came, was worse, precisely because over-confidence in policymakers' ability to control events led to excessive risk and debt being taken on.

Fast forward to today when Edwards claims that with the world suddenly focused on the US, the real trouble continues to brew enearly half a world away: namely "China is currently another place where there is over-complacency." Investors, who long ago decided to stop paying attention to the Kyle Basses of the world who repeatedly have warned about the risks posed by China's economy...

... are virtually certain that China's economy will not hard-land, mainly because the policymakers have proved the naysayers wrong time and time again. But, as in the case of 1987 and 2001, "is luck now running out?" Edwards asks, this time for Beijing.

Edwards' argument revolves around the claim with China's policymakers having had a very 'good' crisis in 2008 (which was papered over only thanks to trillions in new debt, as Kyle Bass' tweet above shows), "since then, naysayers, such as myself, have been consistently wrong in projecting that policymakers would lose control and that a grotesque credit bubble would burst and lay the economy low."

And yet, just like in late 2015, with the sharp swoon that followed China's devaluation and the bursting of its stock bubble, once again fears are growing about the Chinese economy slowing rapidly, even if few fear a bust. Instead, Edwards contends that as President Trump exerts mounting pressure on the Chinese economy via tariffs, "the worry is that a Chinese policy response will send the global markets into a tailspin, just as the August 2015 devaluation did."

Which, in turn, reminds the SocGen strategist that, as we reported back in August, China just unveiled its first ever current account deficit, marking a seachange in the direction of China's capital flows, and making China's policymakers' job even harder, once again bringing up the question: "Is luck running out?"

Of course, the current account is just a ...

Mario Draghi: “Non ci pieghiamo alle esigenze dell’Italia”

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Mario Draghi: "Non ci pieghiamo alle esigenze dell'Italia"
// IxR

Il presidente Mario Draghi "Non ci pieghiamo alle esigenze dell'Italia" – di Redazione

Il presidente Mario Draghi assicura che si cercherà il dialogo, ma avverte L'Italia: "Le regole vanno osservate"

La Banca centrale europea sembra quasi voler minacciare e avverte l'Italia: sì al dialogo, ma le regole vanno osservate.

Le dichiarazioni del Presidente Bce Mario Draghi

Il presidente Mario Draghi si dice "fiducioso che si troverà un accordo" sulla Manovra, poi, durante la conferenza stampa precisa: "Non c'è stata una ....

Aspettando il downgrade

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Aspettando il downgrade
// Trend Online

Tra qualche giorno avremo cognizione di causa per conoscere e comprendere il destino avverso cui dovremmo far fronte come risparmiatori ed investitori italiani.

Tra qualche giorno avremo cognizione di causa per conoscere e comprendere il destino avverso cui dovremmo far fronte come risparmiatori ed investitori italiani. Purtroppo il 2018 sembra volgere alla fine rispolverando ataviche paure che sempre sono state poco considerate in ....

Mosca: i droni che hanno attaccato la base aerea russa in Siria gestiti da un aereo statunitense.

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Mosca: i droni che hanno attaccato la base aerea russa in Siria gestiti da un aereo statunitense.
// Feed RSS di lantidiplomatico.it


I droni che hanno attaccato la base aerea russa di Hmeymim in Siria sono stati guidati dall'aereo da ricognizione statunitense Poseidon-8, ha riferito, oggi, il vice ministro della Difesa russo, generale Alexander Fomin,.
 
"Tredici droni si sono mossi secondo lo schieramento di una battaglia comune, operata da un singolo equipaggio, durante tutto questo tempo l'aereo da ricognizione Poseidon-8 americano ha pattugliato la zona del Mar Mediterraneo per otto ore", ha osservato.

Quando i droni ...

Tech Crash 2.0? – DotCom Deja Vu – Jesse Felder

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Tech Crash 2.0? – DotCom Deja Vu – Jesse Felder
// Silver Doctors

The world now lives under threatening stagflation. With rising US interest rates, higher priced crude oil, and a relatively stronger US dollar vs other major fiat currencies. Multi decade money �…�

The post Tech Crash 2.0? – DotCom Deja Vu – Jesse Felder appeared first on Silver Doctors.


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Tech Giants PANIC as their deep state ties to communist China are revealed

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Tech Giants PANIC as their deep state ties to communist China are revealed
// dcclothesline.com/feed

(Natural News) On the surface, it would appear as though Alex Jones and InfoWars were pulled from social media for supporting the conservative cause with aggressive zeal. [...]
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Trader: "If You Ever Needed Proof That Markets Have Disengaged From The Real World, Here It Is"

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Trader: "If You Ever Needed Proof That Markets Have Disengaged From The Real World, Here It Is"
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By Richard Breslow, Bloomberg macro commentator and author of "Trader's Notes."

Forgive me for being mystified, but I find the juxtaposition of headlines that list the number of pipe bombs sent to prominent citizens with claims that the equity market looks oversold and is due for a bounce unsettling and distasteful. The authorities warn that more such devices may be out there, yet global markets are beginning to bounce in Europe and the U.S. as risk sentiment improves.

And yet, traders remain confused as to ....

Gartman: "We Were Clearly Wrong" To Call For A Bounce

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Gartman: "We Were Clearly Wrong" To Call For A Bounce
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Yesterday, ahead of the furious market selloff, we noted that even Gartman was calling for a bounce in stocks, a development which we cautioned likely meant the selling was about to resume in earnest. It did.

So one day later, in his latest letter to clients, Gartman is out explaining that "we were rather clearly wrong in that short-term instance", but he clarifies "we trust we were clear when we said that that strength… if it were to evolve…was to be seen an opportunity to ....

BCE: tassi fermi, occhi sulla conferenza stampa

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BCE: tassi fermi, occhi sulla conferenza stampa
// Money.it

La BCE ha lasciato invariati i tassi di interesse, come si può osservare sul nostro Calendario Economico.

Quelli sulle operazioni di rifinanziamento principali, sulle operazioni di rifinanziamento marginale e sui depositi presso la banca centrale sono stati lasciati rispettivamente allo 0,00%, allo 0,25% e al -0,40%.

Le attese del mercato sono state confermate dalle odierne decisioni della BCE. Tutti gli occhi saranno ora puntati sulla conferenza stampa di Mario Draghi al via alle ore 14.30.


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The #MAGA Stock Market Trendline Is Broken

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The #MAGA Stock Market Trendline Is Broken
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Authored by Jesse Colombo via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

It was another red day in the markets with the Dow dropping 608.01 points or 2.41% and the S&P 500 dropping 84.59 points or 3.09%, which means that both indices are now down for the year. As someone who is warning about a dangerous stock market bubble (please watch my presentation to learn more), market behavior like this makes me very concerned. Even more concerning is the fact that the major U.S. stock indices have broken below their important uptrend lines that have formed in early-2016. These uptrend lines have guided the U.S. stock market higher for the past couple years during the phase of the stock market bubble that occurred after President Donald Trump won the election (hence why I call it the "#MAGA ['Make America Great Again'] trendline." The breakdown of this trendline signifies a very important change of trend.

Today's sell-off caused the S&P 500 to break below its uptrend line that began in early-2016. For further confirmation, I want to see if the index stays beneath this level by the close of trading on Friday. The next major technical support and price target to watch is the 2,550 to 2,600 support zone that formed at the lows earlier this year.

Unlike the S&P 500, the Dow Jones ....

Cina, il rallentamento della crescita è solo l’inizio

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Cina, il rallentamento della crescita è solo l'inizio
// Trend Online

Vi sono diversi segnali che sollevano preoccupazioni sull'outlook per la crescita economica cinese.

Craig Botham, Emerging Markets Economist di Schroders, spiega che vi sono diversi segnali che sollevano preoccupazioni sull'outlook per la crescita economica cinese. Il rallentamento più accentuato del previsto nella crescita del Pil, passata dal 6,7% del secondo trimestre al 6,5% del terzo, ha rappresentato solo un'anteprima di ...

Ftse Mib: niente spazio per i long. I prossimi target al ribasso

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Ftse Mib: niente spazio per i long. I prossimi target al ribasso
// Trend Online

Il trend a Piazza Affari è ribassista e fino a provaria contraria bisogna rimanere short: i livelli di sostegno da monitorare ora. L'analisi di Antonello Marceddu.

Di seguito riportiamo l'intervista realizzata ad Antonello Marceddu, trader di Protrader, al quale abbiamo rivolto alcune domande sui principali indici azionari, con una particolare attenzione rivolta a Piazza Affari.

L'indice Ftse Mib continua a scivolare verso il basso senza riuscire a dare vita a rimbalzi degni di nota. C'è ancora spazio al ribasso o vede margini per un recupero?

Sicuramente c'è ancora spazio al ribasso per il Ftse Mib che non sembra trovare al momento sostegni in grado di arginare la caduta in atto. A questo punto la soglia più interessante ora è l'area dei 18.500 che a mio avviso rappresenta un livello spartiacque.

Se i 18.500 punti venissero violati al ....

Video: Borse Usa in picchiata, dove finiranno gli indici?

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Video: Borse Usa in picchiata, dove finiranno gli indici?
// Trend Online

Borse Usa in picchiata, dove finiranno gli indici? Analisi prospettica di Nasdaq, S&P500 e del petrolio, giunto su una soglia di supporto decisiva.

Borse Usa in picchiata, dove finiranno gli indici? Analisi prospettica di Nasdaq, S&P500 e del petrolio, giunto su una soglia di supporto decisiva. Analisi di Tamburi, Immsi, Banco Bpm, Sogefi, Pininfarina, su richiesta degli ascoltatori.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6h324E4gQlQ

(AM - www.ftaonline.com)


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Il mercato USA è sulla via del collasso

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Il mercato USA è sulla via del collasso
// Sputnik Italia – Ultime Notizie, Fatti e Analisi: foto, video, infografica

L'indice composito NASDAQ, calcolato dall'omonima borsa negli Stati Uniti, è sceso del 4,43% alla fine delle contrattazioni del 24 ottobre, risulta dai dati della borsa. È il peggior calo giornaliero da agosto 2011.
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Mercati valutari: Brasile e Messico

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Mercati valutari: Brasile e Messico Brasile In Brasile le attese sono per una economia in crescita anche per il 2018 (pocohttps://www.finanzaelambrusco.it/articoli/articoli/finanza/mercati-valutari-brasile-e-messico-2/

Riunione BCE: Mario Draghi sotto i riflettori

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Riunione BCE: Mario Draghi sotto i riflettori
// Money.it

La riunione BCE di ottobre e la conferenza stampa di Mario Draghi alla prova del mercato.

Con una politica monetaria già quasi completamente definita, l'odierno incontro non si rivelerà particolarmente sorprendente né sul fronte tassi di interesse né su quello Quantitative Easing.

Come già accaduto negli ultimi mesi, non saranno tanto le decisioni prese in sede di riunione BCE ad attirare l'attenzione del mercato, quanto le dichiarazioni di Mario Draghi in ...

Generale USA: “alta probabilità guerra con Cina”

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Generale USA: "alta probabilità guerra con Cina"
// Sputnik Italia – Ultime Notizie, Fatti e Analisi: foto, video, infografica

Il tenente generale degli Stati Uniti, Ben Hodges, ex comandante delle forze di terra in Europa, ha dichiarato al Forum sulla sicurezza di Varsavia che c'è un alta probabilità che tra quindici anni inizia una guerra con la Cina. È riportato da Sputnik International.
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Sell-off anche in Asia. Crollo del 3,72% per il Nikkei 225

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Sell-off anche in Asia. Crollo del 3,72% per il Nikkei 225
// Trend Online

Dopo il sell-off abbattutosi mercoledì su Wall Street (peggiore dei tre principali indici Usa il Nasdaq, che ha segnato un crollo del 4,43%), alla riapertura degli scambi in Asia la volatilità si trasferisce sui mercati della regione, come confermato dal declino superiore al 2% dell'indice Msci Asia-Pacific, Giappone escluso, deprezzatosi di oltre il 18,50% nel corso del 2018.

Dopo il sell-off abbattutosi mercoledì su Wall Street (peggiore dei tre principali indici Usa il Nasdaq, che ha segnato un crollo del 4,43%), alla riapertura degli scambi in Asia la volatilità si trasferisce sui mercati della regione, come confermato dal ...

Michel Houellebecq: il mondo occidentale si sta suicidando

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Michel Houellebecq: il mondo occidentale si sta suicidando
// linkiesta.it

000 BP73W

ll francese, autore del celebre "Sottomissione", ha ricevuto a Bruxelles il Premio Oswald Spengler: «Senza religione e figli, l'Europa avrà una vita breve e infelice»


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Eight Reasons A Financial Crisis Is Coming

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Eight Reasons A Financial Crisis Is Coming
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Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

It's been about 10 years since the last financial crisis. FocusEconomics wants to know if another one is due.

The short answer is yes.

In the last 10 years not a single fundamental economic flaw has been fixed in the US, Europe, Japan, or China.

The Fed was behind the curve for years contributing to the bubble. Massive rounds of QE in the US, EU, and Japan created extreme equity and junk bond bubbles.

Trump's tariffs are ill-founded as is Congressional spending wasted on war.

Potential Catalysts

  1. Junk Bond Bubble Bursting

  2. Equity Bubble Bursting

  3. Italy

  4. ....

Off The Cuff: The Market Just Dropped 3% Today. Why?

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Off The Cuff: The Market Just Dropped 3% Today. Why?
// Peak Prosperity

Off The Cuff: The Market Just Dropped 3% Today. Why?

In this week's Off The Cuff podcast, Chris and Axel Merk discuss today's monster drop across the S&P 500, the Dow and the NASDAQ.

The weakness in the financial markets that started two weeks ago continues, and the rescue efforts that investors have become so conditioned to are suddenly less frequent and less successful.

It's certainly feels like the ....

Dow Plunges Over 600 And Nasdaq Collapses Nearly 5%!

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Dow Plunges Over 600 And Nasdaq Collapses Nearly 5%!
// King World News

What a day: Dow plunges over 600 and the Nasdaq collapsed nearly 5%!

The post Dow Plunges Over 600 And Nasdaq Collapses Nearly 5%! appeared first on King World News.


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Stock Market Crash! The Dow Has Now Plunged 2,368 Points From The Peak Of The Market

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Stock Market Crash! The Dow Has Now Plunged 2,368 Points From The Peak Of The Market
// The Economic Collapse

The level of panic that we witnessed on Wall Street on Wednesday was breathtaking.  After a promising start to the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average started plunging, and at the close it was down another 608 points.  Since peaking at 26,951.81 on October 3rd, the Dow has now fallen 2,368 points, and all of the gains for 2018 have been completely wiped out.  But things are even worse when we look at the Nasdaq.  The percentage ....

WARNING: China Is Already Blowing Up…Europe And The USA Are Next!

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WARNING: China Is Already Blowing Up…Europe And The USA Are Next!
// Silver Doctors

The markets are now facing the perfect storm, China is entering a recession, and financial crisis is about to strike Europe and the US. Here are the details… by Graham �…�

The post WARNING: China Is Already Blowing Up…Europe And The USA Are Next! appeared first on Silver Doctors.


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ECB Preview: What Does Draghi Really Think About Italy

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ECB Preview: What Does Draghi Really Think About Italy
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Submitted by RanSquawk

The ECB Monetary Policy decision is due at 13:45 CET, 07:45 EDT, On Thursday 25th October 2018, with the press conference 45 minutes later. Unanimous expectations look for the ECB to leave its three key rates unchanged while markets await any updates on the bank's assessment of Europe's economy and the bank's reinvestment policy after Draghi stated the issue will be discussed before the end of 2018. Draghi likely to be grilled on the Bank's concerns over Italy's budgetary demands.

BACKGROUND

PREVIOUS MEETING: As ...

Peter Schiff’s Warning Becomes Reality As Global Markets In Meltdown

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Peter Schiff's Warning Becomes Reality As Global Markets In Meltdown
// Silver Doctors

Peter has warned of a potential economic catastrophe for some time, but now the signs of economic distress are finally showing up. Here are the details… by Mac Slavo of �…�

The post Peter Schiff's Warning Becomes Reality As Global Markets In Meltdown appeared first on Silver Doctors.


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È la Germania il vero malato d’Europa

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È la Germania il vero malato d’Europa di John MACDOUGALL «Arriva sempre il momento in cui si raggiunge il limite e quelhttps://www.finanzaelambrusco.it/articoli/articoli/politica/e-la-germania-il-vero-malato-deuropa/