26/12/18

'Powell non si tocca', a Wall Street miglior seduta 2009

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'Powell non si tocca', a Wall Street miglior seduta 2009
// RSS di Economia - ANSA.it

Ma mercati nervosi. Balzo con vendite Natale a massimi 6 anni
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California Is In Great Financial Shape – And Headed For An Epic Crisis

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California Is In Great Financial Shape – And Headed For An Epic Crisis
// RSS

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

California Governor Jerry Brown inherited a $27 billion deficit from Arnold Schwarzenegger eight years ago. This month he's leaving his successor a $13.8 billion surplus and a $14.5 billion rainy day fund balance. Pretty good right? Approximately 48 other governors would kill for those numbers.

Unfortunately it's all a mirage. California, as home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood, lives and dies with capital gains taxes. In bull markets, when lots of stocks are rising and tech startups are going public, the state is flush. But in bear markets capital gains turn into capital losses and Sacramento's revenues plunge. Put another way, the state's top 1% highest-income taxpayers generate about half of personal income taxes. When their incomes fall, tax revenues crater.

That's happening right now, as tech stocks plunge, IPOs are pulled and billion-dollar unicorns endure "down rounds" that shave major bucks from their valuations. So if this is a replay of the 2008-2009 bear market, expect California's deficits to return to the double-digit billions.

But that's not the real problem. Those currently-rosy budget numbers are only rosy because they omit the unfunded liabilities of public sector pensions, which are almost supernaturally large.

Consider just Los Angeles' schools:

Can we prevent the LAUSD budget crisis from taking down the California state budget?

(SGVT) – Even as its teachers consider going out on strike, the Los Angeles Unified School District's budget clearly is in crisis. The problem is so big it ....

Russian Central Bank Buying Gold On The International Market?

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Russian Central Bank Buying Gold On The International Market?
// RSS

Submitted by Ronan Manly, BullionStar.com

For a number of years now and even more so during 2018, the central bank of the Russian Federation, the Bank of Russia, has remained in the spotlight as one of the world's largest gold buyers, each month adding substantial amounts of gold to its monetary gold stockpiles.

Having bought another 37.3 tonnes of gold (1.2 million ounces) during November, and Bank of Russia now holds 2103 tonnes of monetary gold. On a year-to-date basis (for the 11 months from January to November 2018), the Russian central bank has added an incredible 264.3 tonnes of gold to its monetary reserve assets.

From January to November 2018, the Russian central bank has added 264.3 tonnes of gold to its reserves. Source: www.goldchartsrus.com

A key feature of the Russian gold market is ....

Wall Street boom con rally epocale, compratori tutti scatenati

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Wall Street boom con rally epocale, compratori tutti scatenati
// Trend Online

Nyse, in luce le azioni del settore trasporti. Nasdaq, tornano i compratori sui titoli FAANG. Azioni Roku sugli scudi grazie a Needham. I titoli ed i temi caldi sulla piazza azionaria di Wall Street.

Santo Stefano tutto in rally per la piazza azionaria di Wall Street dopo la chiusura natalizia di ieri, e dopo la caduta della vigilia. A conclusione della giornata di scambi, infatti, il Nasdaq Composite ha messo a segno un balzo del 5,84% a 6.554,35 punti, così come hanno chiuso in forte rialzo pure l'S&P 500, +4,96% a 2.467,70 punti, e per il Dow Jones, +4,98% 22.878,45 punti. Luce verde ed impennata al close pure per l'indice delle medie capitalizzazioni Russell 2000, +4,96% a 1.329,81 punti. 

Wolf Richter: "My Theory About Gold as Diversification to the Busted 'Everything Bubble”

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Wolf Richter: "My Theory About Gold as Diversification to the Busted 'Everything Bubble"
// GoldSilver.com RSS Feeds

"Since October 1, the S&P 500 index has plunged 19.6%, to 2,351 as of Monday's fiasco. Over the same period, the price of gold has risen 7.3% to $1,271/oz. Over this short period, gold was an effective diversification."
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S&P500 e petrolio alla riscossa

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S&P500 e petrolio alla riscossa
// Trend Online

S&P500 e petrolio alla riscossa.

S&P500 e petrolio alla riscossa. Rimbalzo del 2,8% circa per il Dow Jones che si riporta in vista dei 22400 punti. Ancora meglio fanno lo S&P500 che supera il 3% di guadagno arrivando a 2422 punti circa e il Nasdaq 100, a 6145 circa (+4,17%). Il rimbalzo degli indici era nell'aria dopo il "martello" disegnato dal future S&P500 il 25 dicembre. A fare partire il rimbalzo, oltre alla evidente situazione di ipervenduto, hanno contribuito le parole di Kevin Hassett, un consigliere economico della Casa Bianca, che parlando con la stampa mercoledi' ha ....

Keith Weiner: Are Stocks Overvalued? Is $10,000 Gold And The Collapse Of The Dollar Coming?

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Keith Weiner: Are Stocks Overvalued? Is $10,000 Gold And The Collapse Of The Dollar Coming?
// Silver Doctors

Keith asks if this is "it" in regards to the stock market drop? Here's Keith's insight on the stock market, bubbles, interest rates, gold, and much more… by Keith Weiner �…�

The post Keith Weiner: Are Stocks Overvalued? Is $10,000 Gold And The Collapse Of The Dollar Coming? appeared first on Silver Doctors.


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Russia e Cina stanno preparando una risposta multipolare all’Occidente

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Russia e Cina stanno preparando una risposta multipolare all'Occidente
// controinformazione.info

di Sergei Leonov

Le fonti di Mosca riferiscono che il capo della Federazione Russa, Vladimir Putin, sarà l'ospite chiave del "One Belt, One Way Forum", che si terrà in Cina nell'aprile 2019. Sergey Sanakoev, capo del Centro di analisi russo-cinese, afferma che non c'è nulla di sorprendente in questo fatto – dopo tutto, tre delle cinque rotte terrestri di questo grandioso progetto attraversano anche il territorio russo.

Oltre a Putin, i membri di circa quattro dozzine di paesi prenderanno parte al forum, ma il leader russo, secondo l'ambasciatore russo nella Repubblica popolare cinese Andrei Denisov, sarà sicuramente l'ospite principale dell'evento.

Dopo che Putin ha visitato la Russia in aprile, il leader dell'Impero Celeste, Xi Jinping, farà una visita di ritorno – il presidente cinese visiterà il Forum economico di San Pietroburgo, che si terrà nel giugno 2019.

"È necessario comprendere che nell'ambito del progetto" One Belt and One Road "non sono solo in discussione le rotte di trasporto, ma anche alcune questioni relative ai trasporti, ai legami culturali tra la gente russa e quella cinese " , – come cita l' agenzia di affari federale Sanakoyev" Economia oggi ".
In definitiva, l'obiettivo regionale della Russia è quello di collegare le province settentrionali della Cina con l'Eurasia attraverso la Transiberiana e la Ferrovia orientale cinese – con Chita, nell'est russo, Khabarovsk in Russia e la Cina totalmente interconnesse.
E in tutto questo progetto, Mosca punta a massimizzare il ritorno sulle sue principali risorse dell'Estremo Oriente russo; agricoltura, risorse idriche, minerali, legname, petrolio e gas. La costruzione di impianti di gas naturale liquefatto (GNL) a Yamal avvantaggierà notevolmente non solo la Cina, ma anche il Giappone e la Corea del Sud.

L'orientamento verso l'Asia della Russia non deve meravigliare più di tanto. Gli esperti dell'Estremo Oriente russo sono molto consapevoli dell '"eurocentrismo di una parte considerevole delle élite russe". Sanno che quasi l'intero ambiente economico, demografico e ideologico in Russia è stato strettamente intrecciato con l'Europa per tre secoli. Riconoscono che la Russia ha preso in prestito l'alta cultura europea e il suo sistema di organizzazione militare. Ma ora, sostengono, è il momento, come un grande potere eurasiatico, di trarre profitto da "una fusione originale e autosufficiente di molte civiltà"; La Russia non solo come un punto di scambio o di connettività, ma come un "ponte di civiltà".
Quello che caratterizza la attuale leadership di Mosca è la sua straordinaria ambizione; posizionare la Russia come un crocevia geoeconomico e geopolitico chiave che collega i sistemi economici dell'Eurasia settentrionale, Asia centrale e sud-occidentale.

Lavorando su un progetto comune, la Russia e la Cina stanno creando nuove forme dell'ordine mondiale globale, alternative a quelle che l'Occidente collettivo sta cercando di imporre. Negli Stati Uniti, stanno lottando per un mondo unipolare, mentre Mosca e Pechino si stanno sforzando di creare una comunità geopolitica multipolare in cui non ci saranno pericolosi centri dominanti di potere.


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If Federal Workers Are Suffering This Much Already, How Bad Will It Be When The Government Is Still Closed In February?

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If Federal Workers Are Suffering This Much Already, How Bad Will It Be When The Government Is Still Closed In February?
// RSS

Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,

After just 4 days, federal workers are flocking to social media to share heart-wrenching stories of the misery and pain that they are suffering through because of the current government shutdown. 

As you will see below, it is being claimed that some federal workers were actually forced to return Christmas presents just so that they could afford to pay their mortgages, others are claiming that President Trump "destroyed Christmas", and the wife of one federal worker says that she is going to have to kill her cat if this shutdown goes much longer. 

You couldn't make this stuff up even if you tried, and it makes one wonder how these people would survive if a real national crisis actually erupted.

The truth is that thousands of federal workers are currently experiencing a paid vacation over the holidays, and ultimately their annual pay won't be a penny lower than it otherwise would have been.

Other federal workers are currently ....

The Modern Day Nincompoop — Money Magazine’s Advice on How to Survive a Stock Market Crash

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The Modern Day Nincompoop — Money Magazine's Advice on How to Survive a Stock Market Crash
// GoldSilver.com RSS Feeds

We thought it might be timely to reprint this May 2018 article from GoldSilver Senior Precious Metals Analyst Jeff Clark. In times of extreme market downside and volatility, the mainstream financial media will rush to attempt to convince you they have all the answers. Join Jeff as he explores an especially bizarre piece from Money Magazine that advises you to protect yourself from a crashing stock market... by loading up on stocks.
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Nestmann: "The Poison at the Heart of the Global Financial System"

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Nestmann: "The Poison at the Heart of the Global Financial System"
// GoldSilver.com RSS Feeds

"I won't be surprised if a large chunk of supposedly investment-grade debt is written off if the correction we're now experiencing in the stock market turns into a recession. And that could trigger a financial crisis that dwarfs the one that we experienced a decade ago."
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WSJ Discovers How Algos Broke The Market

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WSJ Discovers How Algos Broke The Market
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For years, as the market rose in seemingly uninterrupted fashion buoyed by trillions in excess central bank liquidity and algos programmed to buy any dip, virtually nobody - except for a few "fringe", "fake news" blogs - complained about the threat posed by algo trading and the quiet but dire deterioration in market liquidity.

Now that the S&P has finally suffered its first bear market in a decade, the mass media is out in full force looking for scapegoats and, predictably, in an attempt to deflect attention from the biggest, and only, culprit behind each and every bull-bust cycle namely the US central bank, has focused on "computerized trading."

In a front page article, the WSJ is out today with "Behind the Market Swoon: The Herdlike Behavior of Computerized Trading", in which a bevy of WSJ authors, among which the paper's new 'Fed whisperer' Nick Timiraos (who may or may not have been tasked with delivering a piece drawing attention from the inhabitants of the Marriner Eccles building), write that "behind the broad, swift market slide of 2018 is an underlying new reality: Roughly 85% of all trading is on autopilot—controlled by machines, models, or passive investing formulas, creating an unprecedented trading herd that moves in unison and is blazingly fast."

And yes, 85% of this "autopilot" trading also took place on the upside, and yet the WSJ was oddly quiet for years and year.

Of course, to Zero Hedge readers, the story is all too familiar: after all we have covered all of this not just when the market snapped lower, but more importantly, during its levitation phase, setting up the inevitable crash:

Today, quantitative hedge funds, or those that rely on computer models rather than research and intuition, account for 28.7% of trading in the stock market, according to data from Tabb Group--a share that's more than doubled since 2013. They now trade more than retail investors, and everyone else.

Add to that passive funds, index investors, high-frequency traders, market makers, and others who aren't buying because they have a fundamental view of a company's prospects, and you get to around 85% of trading volume, according to Marko Kolanovic of JP Morgan.

In terms of specific downside factors, the collapse in momentum has been explicitly highlighted:

One reason the dynamic might have changed: Many of the trading models use momentum as an input. When markets turn south, they're programmed to sell. And if prices drop, many are programmed to sell even more.

Of course, the topic of collapsing momentum was widely discussed here just last Saturday, when we said that as a result of the dominance of algo trading, Deutsche Bank argued that momentum has emerged as the most important force in markets, something we have claimed for years:

However, one key reason why trading has become so complicated for most, and certainly the algos, is that there is currently virtually no momentum in the market - with the MTUM ETF which tracks momentum stocks having its worst month and quarter since its 2013 inception - results in making any attempt to piggyback on the market a money-losing trade.

There are the usual quotes from traders who are suddenly very concerned about stuff:

Boaz Weinstein, founder of ....

Bloomberg: "The Fed May Kill Your Job Faster Than Any Robot"

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Bloomberg: "The Fed May Kill Your Job Faster Than Any Robot"
// GoldSilver.com RSS Feeds

"Low-skilled workers are enjoying a rare moment in the sun, with low unemployment and high wages, thanks to the unusually long economic expansion. The Fed should think long and hard about these people as it gears up to fight an inflation threat that is so far nonexistent."
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SRSrocco: "Santa Claus Carnage - Precious Metals Push Higher In A Sea Of Red"

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SRSrocco: "Santa Claus Carnage - Precious Metals Push Higher In A Sea Of Red"
// GoldSilver.com RSS Feeds

"Gold was up nicely by $13+ and silver gained nearly 1%. Hell, even the U.S. Dollar Index fell 33 points. I was quite surprised to see the oil price fall that much on Christmas Eve after it has been down 40% since the beginning of October."
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"Peak Unaffordability" as US Home Sales Collapse

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"Peak Unaffordability" as US Home Sales Collapse
// GoldSilver.com RSS Feeds

"A home-price indicator created by ATTOM Data Solutions, which maintains the country's largest property database, showed that the median price for US homes during the fourth quarter was at its most unaffordable level since Q3 2008 - a more than 10-year high."
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Collapse In US Home Sales Confirms 'Peak Unaffordability'

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Collapse In US Home Sales Confirms 'Peak Unaffordability'
// RSS

Though some signs of softness are beginning to emerge in the US housing market as home sales slump and prices in the hottest, most high-end markets have fallen - a reaction to just how unaffordable home prices across America have become - in most markets, homes have remained at their most unaffordable level since the financial crisis, as a shortage of supply and stagnant wage growth continue to conspire to weaken consumers' home buying power.

A home-price indicator created by ATTOM Data Solutions, which maintains the country's largest property database, showed that the median price for US homes during the fourth quarter was at its most unaffordable level since Q3 2008 - a more than 10-year high. The nationwide home affordability index, which measures the percentage of the average annual wage needed to buy a home compared with the historical average, slumped to 91 during the fourth quarter, down from 94 in Q3 - the third straight quarterly decline.

Across the US, the number of counties where home-price appreciation outpaced wage growth massively outnumbered counties where wages outpaced home price growth (which would make homes in those areas more affordable).

Attom

The percentage of counties that registered indexes below 100 (indicating that homes became less ....

Tokyo provo a recuperare dopo il tonfo della vigilia

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Tokyo provo a recuperare dopo il tonfo della vigilia
// Milano Finanza

Il Nikkei ha chiuso una sessione molto volatile, con volumi di trading modesti, perdendo fino all'1% a mezzogiorno e terminando in territorio [...]
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Comandante marina russa: la NATO dispiega armi strategiche ai confini della Russia

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Comandante marina russa: la NATO dispiega armi strategiche ai confini della Russia
// Sputnik Italia – Ultime Notizie, Fatti e Analisi: foto, video, infografica

La NATO sta dispiegando armamenti strategici vicino ai confini russi. Lo ha dichiarato oggi il comandante della marina militare russa, l'ammiraglio Vladimir Korolev.
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Top Chinese Banker Warns Against Buying Property "Because There's No More Money To Be Made"

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Top Chinese Banker Warns Against Buying Property "Because There's No More Money To Be Made"
// RSS

Back in 2017, we explained why the "fate of the world economy is in the hands of China's housing bubble." The answer was simple: for the Chinese population, and growing middle class, to keep spending vibrant and borrowing elevated, it had to feel comfortable and confident that its wealth would keep rising. However, unlike the US where the stock market is the ultimate barometer of the confidence boosting "wealth effect", in China it has always been about housing as three quarters of Chinese household assets are parked in real estate, compared to only 28% in the US, with the remainder invested financial assets, which is also why it has traditionally been Beijing's duty to make sure that home prices appreciate year after year, even if the broader economy is doing poorly.

 

Which is why a recent warning by a top Chinese banker that the days of steady home price appreciation ...

Trump Urges Americans To Buy The Dip; Voices Confidence In Mnuchin, Powell

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Trump Urges Americans To Buy The Dip; Voices Confidence In Mnuchin, Powell
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Stocks may have finally found the catalyst they need, if only for a brief relief rally.

Almost ten years after president Obama marked the bottom of the financial crisis, when on the day the S&P hit 666, the president gave the green light to buy stocks on March 6, 2009, saying - rather bizarrely - that "what you're now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it", president Trump also urged Americans to buy the dip when on Tuesday he suggested that the recent swoon in the stock market is a buying opportunity for investors.

"We have companies, the greatest in the world, and they're doing really well," Trump told reporters at the White House on Christmas Day. "They have record kinds of numbers. So I think it's a tremendous opportunity to buy. Really a great opportunity to buy."

Trump's invocation to BTFD came one day after the most violent Christmas Eve selloff on record, and the day when the S&P fell not only to its lowest level in 20 months, but also slumped into a bear market. For Trump, the stock market has served as a barometer on his administration, and while he was pointing out virtually every major uptick for the past two years, the recent plunge has infuriated him, leaving him mute on any market-related topic.

But a more important catalyst for a ....

It's Not Just A Trade War; And It's Not Just China...

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It's Not Just A Trade War; And It's Not Just China...
// RSS

Authored by Alastair Crooke via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

It's not just a trade war: behind that, hides a tech-war – and behind that, lie the plans for a full-spectrum arms race – from space to cyber.

As one US current commander put it:

"fields of data and information … that's what modern war runs on. "What are the missions we do in space today? Provide information; provide pathways for information; in conflict, we deny adversaries access to that information". 

So, the new arms-race is as much about retaining and advancing US tech-leadership in chip evolution, quantum computing, big data and Artificial Intelligence (AI) for weaponry – as it is just about tech lead in the economic sphere: i.e. dominating civilian industry standards for the next generation of those smart electronic gadgets – that we all will buy.

So, what is going on?

Well, the US military complex is 'for real' on this. They are gearing-up for the coming military-standoff with China. The constant harking on themes that China is stealing America's technology, its knowhow ...

They Aren't BTFD: S&P Futures Slide In Early Illiquid Trading

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They Aren't BTFD: S&P Futures Slide In Early Illiquid Trading
// RSS

On Christmas Day, president Trump had a simple message for Americans: BTFD. They chose to sell instead.

As we noted earlier, in a presser following his address to U.S. armed forces members on a Christmas Day video conference call, Trump told reporters "we have companies, the greatest in the world, and they're doing really well. They have record kinds of numbers. So I think it's a tremendous opportunity to buy. Really a great opportunity to buy."

Alas, following the historic Christmas Eve rout which saw the S&P plunge the most ever on the shortened pre-Christmas session, Americans are clearly not seeing the market as a "tremendous opportunity to buy" and are instead selling futures with the E-mini sliding off the gate when futures trading resumed at 6pm, down as much as 1.1% and touching a session low of 2,316.75 in an early burst of selling before rebounding in what appears to be a session with absolutely no liquidity.

And while it is safe to say that already record low liquidity is even more abysmal than usual, with the Plunge Protection Team now active, the president himself urging Americans to buy stocks, and with hedge funds desperate for at least a little bounce into the final 4 sessions of the year, if stocks still can't stage even a tiny relief rally it will be safe to say that the bear market has indeed arrived.


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Camerun: Ribelli Ambazonia emettono moneta rivoluzionaria virtuale

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Camerun: Ribelli Ambazonia emettono moneta rivoluzionaria virtuale
// Guerre nel Mondo

8e122afa32a34912ab6bce3070c7b397_18.jpg

I separatisti anglofoni in Camerun lunedi hanno annunciato di aver lanciato una moneta virtuale, l'AmbaCoin, per aiutare a contribuire alla loro campagna per l'indipendenza e fornire aiuto umanitario.

La valuta come il bitcoin, basata sul principio del software blockchain, prende il nome dalla "Repubblica di Ambazonia", un auto-dichiarato Stato indipendente nelle regioni nord-ovest e sud-ovest del Camerun.

[Continua a leggere…]


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California Is In Great Financial Shape – And Headed For An Epic Crisis

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California Is In Great Financial Shape – And Headed For An Epic Crisis
// DollarCollapse.com

California Governor Jerry Brown inherited a $27 billion deficit from Arnold Schwarzenegger eight years ago. This month he's leaving his successor a $13.8 billion surplus and a $14.5 billion rainy day fund balance. Pretty good right? Approximately 48 other governors would kill for those numbers. Unfortunately it's all a mirage. California, as home to Silicon […]

The post California Is In Great Financial Shape – And Headed For An Epic Crisis appeared first on DollarCollapse.com.


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Fenomenologia del Trombone

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Fenomenologia del TromboneDi Marcello Veneziani A due passi dall’Italia e dal mondo sorge Trombon Valley,https://www.finanzaelambrusco.it/articoli/articoli/cultura/fenomenologia-del-trombone/