05/01/19

JPMorgan Now Sees 60% Odds Of A Recession

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JPMorgan Now Sees 60% Odds Of A Recession
// RSS

It was just one month ago that JPM's quant Marko Kolanovic, who was especially bullish headed into the close of what proved to be the worst year for capital markets since the financial crisis, realized that his prediction would not pan out, and bizarrely blamed "fake media" and "specialized websites that mass produce a mix of real and fake news [and] often these outlets will present somewhat credible but distorted coverage of sell-side financial research, mixed with geopolitical news, while tolerating hate speech in their website commentary section" for somehow interfering with capital markets and preventing his optimistic view from being realized (one hopes the implication was not that said 'specialized websites' have more influence on markets than, say, JPMorgan).

Fast forward to today when something odd happened: none other than JPMorgan itself appears to be in the "fake news" business because the firm is now warning that - according to various markets - just two months after we reported that "JPMorgan Sees 60% Odds Of A Recession In 2 Years", the largest US bank now writes that "US equity, bond and commodity markets appear to be pricing in on average close to 60% chance of a US recession over the coming year."

And it's not just one but two reports, the first from JPM economist Jesse Edgerton who writes that even after Friday's solid payrolls data, "our model estimates of the risk of recession have risen sharply over the past three months. Our preferred model based on economic data now puts the probability of recession beginning within 12 months at 39%, and models that incorporate signals from financial markets are [around 70%]." The bank then concedes that while it still thinks the most likely scenario involves continued moderate growth in 2019, i.e., the infamous "JPMorgan House View", it acknowledges that "risks of a downturn have increased."

A second, more nuanced, report ...

Azioni Apple, previsioni 2019: sarà un anno da dimenticare?

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Azioni Apple, previsioni 2019: sarà un anno da dimenticare?
// Money.it

Le prime previsioni 2019 sulle azioni Apple hanno parlato di un anno che potrebbe rivelarsi piuttosto deludente per Cupertino.

A detta di alcuni analisti l'intero settore tecnologico dovrà affrontare i venti contrari più forti dell'ultimo decennio. La società della mela morsicata però sarà tra le più colpite.

Già il 2018 non si è rivelato un anno facile per i titoli tech e per le stesse azioni Apple che dall'inizio dell'anno hanno bruciato più dell'8% a Wall Street. Determinante un mix letale di elementi tra cui le problematiche legate alla ...

Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008?

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Is This Downturn A Repeat of 2008?
// Peak Prosperity

Is This Downturn a Repeat of 2008?

Are we in a repeat of the global financial meltdown and recession of 2008-09? The sharp drop in equities is certainly reminiscent of 2008. Indeed, the December decline is the worst in a decade. Or are we entering a different kind of recession, the equivalent of uncharted waters?

And if we are entering a recession, what can central banks and governments do to ease the financial pain and damage? ....

THE ANALYTICS CONFIRM IT: Gold & Silver Trader Sees BIG RESET Happening

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THE ANALYTICS CONFIRM IT: Gold & Silver Trader Sees BIG RESET Happening
// Silver Doctors

The man who absolutely nailed the 1987 stock market crash confirms the coming Great Reset. Gold & silver will humble all the naysayers. Here's more… Michael Oliver interviewed by Chris �…�

The post THE ANALYTICS CONFIRM IT: Gold & Silver Trader Sees BIG RESET Happening appeared first on Silver Doctors.


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Is The World Safe From Global Conflict In 2019?

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Is The World Safe From Global Conflict In 2019?
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Authored by M.K.Bhadrakumar via The Indian Punchline,

Armageddon: Will it come on Trump's watch?

Is 2019 going to be the year of the Armageddon? The answer is a definitive 'No'. As 2018 ended, the potential for war was looming and Russian President Vladimir Putin even refused to rule out a nuclear war. But then, the statesmen grappling with international security also ...

Il lento naufragio della Apple

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Il lento naufragio della Apple
// L' Intellettuale Dissidente

Sarebbe meraviglioso farsi trascinare dalla corrente, stesi su una barchetta di legno larga e confortevole, avvolti dal calore del sole e aspettando che la pelle diventi olivastra. I pesci, quelli anche, che saltano dentro senza bisogno d'essere pescati e l'acqua di mare che si rivela dolce e dissetante. Sarebbe bello, davvero, non fare un bel niente ed avere successo. Peccato che, nella realtà dei fatti, ad immolarsi su di una zattera in mezzo al mare, con le gambe conserte e stesi a prendere il sole, è più facile incappare in uno tsunami o in un pescecane, che in qualcosa di buono. Tim Cook, CEO di Apple dal 2011, anno in cui è venuto a ...

Parigi: “sta precipitando tutto”

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Parigi: “sta precipitando tutto”Succede a Parigi, ancora una volta dopo la prima sortita del 17 novembre: i “gilethttps://www.finanzaelambrusco.it/articoli/articoli/politica/parigi-sta-precipitando-tutto/